KIEV Ukraine has been fighting against Russia for almost three years, and now a new, huge challenge is coming: we should get the next president-elect of the United States Donald Trump to stand by Ukraine.
It’s hardly easy when looks at Trump and especially his future vice president By JD Vance speeches.
– I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring a just peace to Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will make it happen together, Zelenskyi wrote in X shortly after Trump declared himself the winner on Wednesday morning Finnish time.
Zelenskyi’s congratulatory message conveys that Ukraine is quickly adapting to the new era.
Watch the video to see how the people of Kyiv reacted to Trump’s victory:
Trump has declared that he will end the war in Ukraine even before his inauguration at the end of next January. This is it interpreted as suchthat Trump would force Ukraine into peace from a poor negotiating position, possibly by threatening to end US aid to Ukraine.
– The official position of the Ukrainian leadership is that the most important thing is to maintain the bipartisan support of the United States. Everything else is secondary, and preparations have been made for it, says the political researcher from Kyiv Volodymyr Fesenko To .
Fesenko is a political analyst and director of the Ukrainian think tank Penta Center for Political Studies.
According to Fesenko, adaptation to the new US administration has already begun. It is especially important for Ukraine that the United States continues to guarantee it with armed assistance.
– It is a fundamental question for us. But life goes on even under Trump, says Fesenko.
No quick fix for war
How likely does the researcher consider the possibility that the war will end even before Trump’s inauguration at the end of January? The answer is clear.
– Ending the war before the inauguration is impossible.
However, Fesenko considers it likely that the negotiations, or at least their explorations, will begin even before the inauguration. He believes that Trump will soon call Putin and try to agree on an agreement in principle to start negotiations.
The second step is when Trump appoints a negotiator to lead the talks. The person should travel to Moscow and Kyiv.
The third step is the actual start of negotiations. According to Fesenko, it will happen in December at the earliest. However, the negotiations will be informal because Trump does not yet have the mandate to lead them, says Fesenko.
Fesenko does not believe in a quick solution, because the views of Ukraine and Russia on ending the war are far from each other. Territorial cessions are not, however, the biggest problem for reaching an agreement, Fesenko states.
– Trump will propose freezing the war. It does not mean giving up territories. We haven’t controlled Crimea for ten years, but have we given it up? Fesenko points out.
Zelenskyi also said a few days ago that Ukraine will not accept demands for territorial concessions if Trump wins.
Fesenko sees Putin as the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire. According to him, it is impossible for Putin to accept Ukraine’s NATO membership, and secondly, shrinking the Ukrainian army to a minimum is important to Putin.
A few days ago, Sistema, a group of investigative journalists from Radio Free Europe, focused on Russia, published a report containing Russia’s conditions for Ukraine at the beginning of the war. In it, the size of the Ukrainian army would be limited to 50,000 men.
Currently, some are serving in the Ukrainian army according to estimates about 900,000 soldiers.
Say goodbye to NATO dreams?
According to the researcher, Ukraine’s NATO dreams are in any case a hard knock.
– In Trump’s opinion, ending NATO membership negotiations with Ukraine is the best bonus for Putin. That’s why the membership negotiations will very likely be stopped under Trump, Fesenko believes.
However, Ukraine has some time to survive even in the worst case scenario. G7 countries suitable for two weeks then for a 50 billion euro loan to Ukraine for next year. According to Fesenko, it is the minimum amount that Ukraine can survive in the near future. Part of the amount is military aid. He thinks that Biden will also try to promote Ukraine’s aid in his last months.
Does the researcher then believe that hostilities could end in the near future?
– Some kind of window is opening, but in reality it depends more on Putin than on Trump and Ukraine. Freezing the war is not enough for Putin, says Fesenko.