According to an expert interviewed by EPN, the EU may eventually save from those who come by negotiating with the United States.
Risto Mattila,
Vilma Romsi
US president Donald Trump On Sunday it announced that it would set new 25 % import duties for aluminum and steel. According to Trump, customs is due to enter into force on Monday.
asked the Bank of Finland’s forecast manager Juuso from Vanhalawhat consequences the customs have for Finland and Europe.
What countries do duties most affect?
Steel and aluminum duties are most affected by Canada, Mexico and China.
– They are large exporters of steel and aluminum to the United States. Other exporters of reasonably sized are South Korea, Brazil and even Germany, says Vanhala.
However, in 2023, the United States was the largest steel export of the EU.
In the video below, the financial expert assesses the effects of the customs declaration in Germany, known as the EU economic locomotive:
How do steel and aluminum duties affect Finland?
The direct impact on Finland’s steel export remains relatively small.
– Depending on the statistical sources and the time, steel exports have been worth 150-200 million euros, and the export of aluminum is low, says Vanhala.
Finland’s total export of goods is over 80 billion. The share of the United States is just under 10 %.
Steel duties can be useful for the largest steel company in Finland, Outokumpu, who has production in the United States in Alabama.
– We are the second largest local stainless steel producer there, Outokumpu’s communication is commented on by Email.
Outokumpu says that steel imports from Asia to the United States and North America has negatively affected the company.
– Generally speaking, duties for imported goods are positive for us.
However, according to Vanhala, duties also have indirect effects on Finland. The temporary politics causes uncertainty, which makes it difficult for businesses.
Together duties and newcomers are suppressing the world trade as a whole.
Which product prices are increasing?
So far, it is unclear what all the duties are about.
The price effect depends on whether duty only applies to a very low degree of processing, such as a metal plate or roll. The effect of customs duties is much bigger if they apply to further processed metal products.
It is also unclear in the case of raw material exports where the boundary is made. For example, the brushed steel used in construction is practically completely steel – it is unclear whether it is also covered by customs.
How do Trump’s other “reciprocal duties” affect Finland?
Trump has suggested that it also sets offs of non -steel and aluminum customs. However, the details are not yet known.
Through exports, they affect economic growth in Europe and Finland.
– On the other hand, the strengthening of the dollar slightly waterates this effect.
According to Vanhala, the overall effect depends on how large the duties are.
– It is likely that they will weaken economic growth but do not drive Finland to recession.
In the first season of Trump, the United States also placed duties to the EU, but as a result of the negotiations, they were abandoned. Vanhala considers it possible that again this time, negotiating can be saved or at least mitigated.