Former President of the United States Donald Trump made history again yesterday when he became the first president in US history to be indicted for a crime.
A New York grand jury voted Thursday to indict the former president. The charge is related to her and an adult entertainment actress by Stephanie Cliffordstage name Stormy Daniels, to the alleged secret relationship almost twenty years ago.
The Trump campaign paid $130,000 to keep Clifford’s relationship quiet during the 2016 presidential election, which is not a crime. However, Trump is charged with a crime because the payment was entered on the books of Trump’s company as a legal fee.
Trump is expected to cooperate and arrive in New York for the hearing on Tuesday next week.
On Tuesday, Trump is unlikely to be detained for long. He must give his fingerprints at the New York courthouse and have his traditional arrest photo taken. Possibly he will also be handcuffed at least for a while.
After this, the judge will decide whether Trump will be remanded in custody, but it is likely that Trump will be released from the courthouse right away to his home on Tuesday. Trump’s defense will presumably deny all the charges read against Trump, after which the trial schedule itself will be agreed upon.
The entire event in New York is closely coordinated together with the secret service that protects the presidents of the United States, so that everything runs smoothly on Tuesday.
The risk of violent protests is low
Trump has asked his supporters to take to the streets to protest the impeachment, which has brought back memories of Trump’s speeches before Epiphany 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol and tried to stop the president Joe Biden confirmation of election victory.
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Maria Lindén considers violent protests by Trump supporters unlikely this time.
– Tuesday is the day on which the greatest threat of demonstrations is directed, because the demonstrators have time to organize protests over the weekend, Lindén thinks.
This time, however, the police are prepared for protests. In addition, Trump’s indictment has not aroused nearly as strong passions among his supporters as the previous presidential elections.
– The epiphany riot had a huge lift. People lived the election very intensively and it was very personal for the voters, Lindén recalls.
According to Lindén, Trump’s lawsuit has nowhere near the emotional charge compared to the election, and many of Trump’s value-conservative supporters may also consider the secret affair an embarrassing reason to go to the barricades.
– I don’t think this will inspire nearly as many people. It may very well be that now there is a fear of a repeat of the storming of the congress building, but then there will be five protesters and 150 police, Lindén predicts.
Will Trump benefit or suffer from the indictment?
Even if the indictment does not lead to turmoil on the streets of the United States, the indictment has enormous significance for the 2024 presidential election, Lindén estimates.
When information about the indictment became public, Trump declared (you go to another service) immediately on his Truth Social messaging service that the charge is a political manhunt and witch hunt against him.
According to Lindén, Trump’s reaction is natural for him.
– Trump is trying to use this to his political advantage. He plans to take as much political advantage out of this as possible, says Lindén.
According to Lindén, Trump certainly did not want the indictment, but he also sees opportunities in the situation. It is highly unlikely that Trump loyalists’ interpretation of the indictment as a political chase will change during the trial, no matter what evidence is presented.
In the short term, Lindén predicts that Trump’s support will rise and fundraising will pick up.
– It is a more difficult question how this will affect in the long term. Voting in the Republican primaries does not begin until January. It’s a really long time. Possibly by then it will be known whether Trump will be convicted of this or not, Lindé said.
According to Lindén, turnout ultimately plays a decisive role in the Republican primaries. If more moderate Republicans feel that Trump, who is struggling with criminal charges, is a sure loser in November 2024, they may be motivated to vote against Trump in droves.
At the moment, however, Trump’s pre-favorite position as the Republican presidential candidate is clear. Trump’s popularity in opinion polls has seemed shaky at times during the winter, but recently Trump has re-established his support to a convincing level.
In several surveys from the last few weeks (you switch to another service) More than half of Republican voters have responded that they support Trump as the Republican presidential candidate.
The majority of Republicans believe the indictment is purely a political chase, making the situation challenging for those challenging Trump within the party, such as the governor of Florida To Ron DeSantis. He is widely considered to be Trump’s only viable challenger in next year’s primaries.
According to Lindén, DeSantis has balanced the case by calling the charge political and at the same time acknowledging to Trump how he has ended up in the middle of the uproar over a relationship with an adult entertainment star.
– DeSantis is probably trying to continue on this same line, where we support Trump, but at the same time, in the conservative direction of values, we emphasize our own purity compared to Trump, says Lindén.
Lindén says it remains to be seen whether value conservatives will be interested in Trump’s secret affair at all in the end, because Trump has never been voted for before because he was a good Christian.
– Trump does not have to be one of them, says Lindén.
If Trump eventually clears his way to become the Republican candidate again, the amount of lawsuits would be a burden on him on election day, Lindén predicts, because there are still mobile voters and moderate Republicans in the United States.
– Some of them are starting to be filled to the brim with Trump, Lindén reminds. According to him, many of them may end up voting for a safer option, for example the current president Joe Bidenif he ends up being the Democratic nominee again.
Trump is going to use the racism card
Among the criminal investigations against Trump, the case involving adult entertainment star Clifford is one of the most trivial. Possible future charges related to the attempt to reverse the election result, inciting a riot in the Congress building or taking secret documents from the White House with them are much more serious charges.
In the Clifford-related hush-hush payment, the prosecution may end up being, for example, an accounting crime, which is a minor crime. Trump could possibly receive a suspended prison term at most and could continue his election campaign.
Trump has given no indication that possible future and more serious charges would cause him to drop out of the presidential race. On the contrary – lawsuits may become an integral part of Trump’s campaign this time.
Lindén reminds that Trump’s strength in campaigning has always been his large public events around the country. This time, Trump’s time may be spent in courthouses, which will change the style of campaigning.
In Lindén’s opinion, what is interesting about Trump’s recent rhetoric is, for example, how Trump tries to turn the lawsuit into a racist chase against him.
– Trump is white and Alvin Bragg is black. It follows that Trump’s supporters, who are overwhelmingly white, can see this within the framework of race relations, Lindén says.
Lindén says that Trump has recently called Manhattan District Attorney Bragg, among other things, an animal, which is a wild choice of words in light of the history of racial oppression in American history.
According to Lindén, Trump is now consciously building a side plot in the story of the trial, in which blacks treat a white man unfairly. In this way, Trump activates fears in his supporters that have been part of his appeal from the beginning.
– This is a useful story for Trump, because among his supporters there are many white Americans who see it as a threat that minorities gain power in society. These black prosecutors are examples of people in power, says Lindén.
It would be helpful for Trump if Republicans troubled by the secret affair finally forgot what the whole lawsuit was even about. Instead, Trump wants the whole charge to appear to Republicans as a general oppression of white men.
– He is definitely going to play the race card in the coming weeks as well, predicts Lindén.
Read also:
Analysis: Trump is on trial, but that doesn’t really calm anyone in the US
Donald Trump was charged with paying an adult entertainment actor to keep quiet