Every four years, the whole world becomes passionate about the American presidential campaign, its often incredible candidates and its twists and turns galore. This 2024 edition is no exception. It is also historic in several respects: never has a candidate given up the race so close to the vote, never has a candidate been the subject of several assassination attempts in the middle of the campaign… and rarely has the result been seemed so uncertain. In the latest polls, the gap separating Kamala Harris from Donald Trump is almost systematically within the margin of error.
American voters are called to the polls on Tuesday, November 5 and, the only thing certain is that the outcome will be played out in a handful of undecided states, which the American media nicknames the “Swing States”. In the rest of the country, the election seems a foregone conclusion. Concretely, this means that the Democratic vice-president is almost certain to win 226 of the 538 electoral votes and the former Republican president, 219. As the threshold to exceed to win is 270 votes in the electoral college, the Harris camp benefits a slight numerical advantage at the moment.
But the game is far from over. The future of the United States is currently in the hands of the citizens of Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. No analyst can predict with certainty which candidate each of these pivotal states will favor. Based on the latest polls and the demographic dynamics of each of them, L’Express therefore tested five hypotheses and drew five plausible electoral maps less than a week before the long-awaited election.
Scenario 1: Donald Trump wins thanks to Pennsylvania
“I almost feel bad for the car dealerships,” remarked JJ Balaban, a consultant who has been doing promotional campaigns for the Democratic Party for twenty-two years. He says that in recent days, in Pennsylvania, “there is not an advertising space that is not monopolized by the presidential campaign.” It must be said that the two candidates are playing big: with 19 electors, the State will offer the largest contingent of the seven Swing States to the one who comes first.
After the Democratic convention last August, Kamala Harris trailed her opponent by a little more than 1 point, but Donald Trump has caught up. Since mid-October, he has even been ahead by 0.5 points, which could tip the election. Indeed, the former president also has a slight lead in key southern states, such as North Carolina or Georgia, two historically Republican states. Obtaining the vote of the electors in these two territories and in Pennsylvania would be enough to fold the match.
Both candidates know it well: thanks to this support in the south of the country, there are several combinations for Donald Trump to win the election. This is not the case for the vice-president. If Kamala Harris loses Pittsburgh State and Philadelphia, her chances of victory greatly diminish. This is why, in recent days, campaign teams from both camps have been plowing through Pennsylvania. In ten days, Harris and his running mate, Tim Walz, made five appearances in the state; Trump and JD Vance made it six. Proof that this territory, twice the size of the Grand-Est region, has become the epicenter of the election. “If you had a crystal ball that allows you to see the result in one state and one state only, choose Pennsylvania,” suggests JJ Balaban.
Scenario 2: Kamala Harris wins by retaining the “blue walls”
Since the early 1990s, the Democratic Party has (almost) always been able to count on what commentators call the “blue wall (blue wall)”, namely around fifteen states from the West Coast, the North-East and the Great Lakes region. Together, they have around 43% of the votes in the electoral college and therefore represent a considerable asset for the party of Kamala Harris: this “blue wall” is much less solid today than in 1992. It even wavered eight years ago, when Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania narrowly rallied. to Donald Trump, before reforming behind Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election. If she wins in these three states this year, Harris should obtain exactly 270 electors.
Usually, Democrats record good scores in this industrial region, thanks to the strong mobilization of unions. Kamala Harris’ party has often achieved better scores among white workers without higher education than in the more agricultural states of the Midwest or Southeast. Until 2016. Donald Trump had garnered better scores than his Republican predecessors by riding on the resentment born of deindustrialization. This year, he chose a running mate from Ohio, a state at the crossroads of these three Swing States, in the hope of seducing these white voters who are gradually turning their backs on the Democrats. And, according to polls, his strategy is working. In Wisconsin and Michigan, Kamala Harris had a lead of 2 to 3 points since the launch of her campaign in August, but there too the gap has narrowed.
All this is enough to make the candidate’s teams feverish. They fear a last-minute event that could alienate undecided voters from the region, knowing that winning these three states remains their surest path to keeping the White House. This is also what the party’s advertising strategy shows: according to the company AdImpactwhich analyzes candidate spending, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin together account for nearly two-thirds of the candidates’ total advertising budget. Democrats spent $359.3 million on political ads in these three states in the last three months alone. This is more than 100 million more than the Republicans over the same period (251.4 million).
Scenario 3: Kamala Harris replicates Joe Biden’s 2020 feat
When she launched the presidential campaign, just after the withdrawal of the outgoing president, Kamala Harris benefited from a certain popular enthusiasm. All the polls suddenly gave her the winner and even the bettors increased her popularity, but the momentum was greatly reduced. No one among the Democrats dares to believe that the vice-president will be able to reproduce Joe Biden’s performance in 2020.
“It seems unlikely,” agrees Ben Nuckels, a Democratic political consultant from Wisconsin, “but if there’s one thing Americans hate, it’s having their rights taken away…and that’s exactly what Donald Trump.” The strategist is referring to the Supreme Court’s suspension of the Roe vs. Wade ruling, which legalized abortion in the United States. During his first term, Donald Trump appointed three conservative judges, thus allowing several states to reverse this social achievement. Today, many voters – especially female voters – are angry with him. “Since this legal reversal, in 2022, the Republicans have not won a single election,” underlines Ben Nuckels, who wants to believe in the Democrats’ chances. Today, about two-thirds of Americans believe that abortion should be “permitted in most cases,” according to the Pew Research Centeran American think tank specializing in quantitative demographic studies.
Furthermore, in Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina, the metropolises of Phoenix, Atlanta, and even Charlotte are democratic bubbles that are exploding. Very dynamic and very diverse, they have recently seen the arrival of many young graduates who would like to protect the right to abortion. In recent years, the inhabitants of these urban areas have gained increasing weight in the electoral body of their respective states and they vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Enough to cause a blue tidal wave? Not sure that their vote is enough in these bastions of the Republican Party.
Scenario 4: a grand slam for Donald Trump
This is a scenario that still seemed improbable a few weeks ago. For Christopher Nicholas, a political consultant who has worked for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania for forty years, the vice-president “still has a very slight advantage in the states of blue wall, but it is possible that the polls will overestimate her, as they did with Hillary Clinton in 2016.” In this case, Donald Trump could win all of the swing states.
“In 2016, Donald Trump voters were still a little timid and hesitant,” admits Christopher Nicholas, “they are much more exuberant and demanding today.” According to him, the difference between the polls and the actual vote on the evening of November 5 should be less significant. In any case, the former president will certainly be able to count on the pivotal states of the South: in Georgia and Arizona, for example, the latest surveys put him in the lead, a few tenths of a point from the margin of error.
He can also count on weight support. Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of Tesla and In his public appearances, he even offered large sums of money to voters in swing states who would vote for Donald Trump.
Scenario 5: the improbable hypothesis of a tie in the electoral college
What if the election of the American president was played out not in a key state but in a key city? The scenario seems improbable, but remains arithmetically plausible. Many American media have already reported this: if Harris wins the three Swing States of the Northeast and Trump wins in the four South, the balance could be decided in Omaha, the largest city in Nebraska. Unlike most other states, this agricultural territory in the Midwest has chosen to elect its electors by constituency and not at the level of the entire state. Until recently, this posed no problem, since all districts systematically voted for the Republican candidate. But, in 2008 and 2020, the “second district”, which includes Omaha and its nearby suburbs, chose Barack Obama, then Joe Biden.
In theory, the city could support the Republican candidate again this year and risk causing a tie in the Electoral College. In this case, the American Constitution provides that the certification of the results of the presidential election rests with the House of Representatives. The delegations of each State must then elect a single representative responsible for certifying the election. The number of electors then fell from 538 to 50, completely upsetting the balance of Congress. “In this case, it is Donald Trump who would undoubtedly win, analyzes JJ Balaban, the Democrats are more numerous in the House, because they have many elected officials in very populated states, like New York or the California But in terms of number of delegations, they are in the minority.”
For the moment, this disaster scenario does not torment the Democratic Party leadership too much. Most polls conducted in Nebraska’s 2nd District give Kamala Harris a lead of more than 5 points, much more than in all other key states. But can we really exclude it? This presidential campaign has already experienced many unprecedented twists and turns… A surprise arrived so quickly.
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