Russia’s autocratic president Vladimir Putin declared a three-day war in Ukraine has already lasted almost three years.
In that time, Russia has occupied almost 20 percent of the territory of independent Ukraine and lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers. The assessment of Ukrainians according to this year alone, Russia’s losses will rise to 430,000 soldiers.
In the year the Great Attack began, Russia advanced rapidly, but during the past year its progress has not been at the level of the first year. From the beginning of January 2024, Russia’s regional achievements can be summed up to an area slightly larger than Moscow.
The war has been difficult for Ukraine. What does the coming year look like for that?
We asked the docent of military science about it From Ilmari Käihkö and from the deputy director of the Estonian International Defense Research Center From Kristi Raiki.
In the animation below, you can see how the front line in Ukraine has developed in a year:
Ukraine is capable of defending itself, although it is difficult to predict the US line
Kristi Raik believes that Ukraine can still defend itself militarily. The capabilities of Ukraine’s military industry are also of a different order than when the war started, which in turn improves the country’s ability to endure a protracted war.
– The defense industry has developed amazingly fast. It brings additional certainty that Ukraine will manage.
Raik emphasizes that Ukraine’s success in the defensive battle is directly related to the support provided by its allies. US support in particular is very important.
– According to military estimates, Ukraine will be able to defend itself for at least six months thanks to the latest US aid package.
Raik estimates that even if the United States significantly reduces its support for Ukraine, the future president Donald Trump’s after coming to power, no, European support is not ending completely.
According to Raik, it is difficult to predict Trump’s Ukraine policy.
– The level of unpredictability is unprecedented. All scenarios are possible. However, we know for sure that Trump will put enormous pressure on Europe to do more for the security and defense of the continent.
Ilmari Käihkö, on the other hand, says that Europe must be prepared for the fading of US support. If US support fades, the importance of European support will be emphasized.
– In Trump’s first term, we saw that he saw Ukraine primarily as a problem for Europeans. This point of view has hardly changed, and its importance may become stronger in his second term, says Käihkö.
Possible peace negotiations and Ukraine’s security guarantees
Especially after Trump’s election victory, there has been more and more talk about peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Ilmari Käihkö states that although talk of peace has increased, there is no certainty that it will be achieved during the next year.
– We also don’t know what peace would look like and whether it would be permanent. If the solution is not permanent, Ukraine may have to prepare for a further war in the future.
For Ukraine, the threshold issue in possible negotiations is to prevent the war from starting again. Security guarantees have been proposed as a solution to this.
– They are the only way to prevent a Russian attack in the future. Ukraine sees them as a lifeline for a reason. They consider that Russia cannot be trusted, says Käihkö.
Also according to Kristi Raik, security guarantees are important for achieving lasting peace. Raik considers Ukraine’s membership in the military alliance NATO as the clearest long-term solution.
– It is still on the table. At the moment, it doesn’t look like things will progress any time soon. However, NATO’s goal is that this will happen, says Raik.
Raik also considers Ukraine’s military capabilities important as part of the security guarantee model. Ukraine has expressed its desire to maintain an army of 250,000 soldiers even after the end of the war.
Russia, on the other hand, has demanded that the size of Ukraine’s peacetime armed forces be limited to 85,000 soldiers. Russia has also demanded severe restrictions on the number of Ukrainian tanks and artillery and the range of missiles.
Raik sees that Ukraine’s security guarantees will also include the military presence of European countries in Ukraine. It would serve as a deterrent during and after the negotiations, and the purpose of the troops would not be to actively participate in hostilities, says Raik.
– There has now been a discussion in Europe about whether there should be a military presence. Through that, Europe would commit to Ukraine and its long-term support, as well as a credible deterrent that prevents the war from starting again.
Raik also calls for a US role in Ukraine’s security solution, even though it has refused to send troops to Ukraine.
– For many European countries, the participation of the United States is a critical issue. It would guarantee Ukraine’s security with the continuation of arms aid and other background support, possibly even with nuclear weapons protection.