I would be very happy to see Donald Trump behind bars. Donald Trump has attacked the fundamental institutions of the American political system as no other president has done in living memory. Whether or not he is technically guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors”, there is little doubt that he is a traitor to the country’s most fundamental political values.
It also seems likely that Trump broke the law. For decades, its modus operandi has been to push beyond the bounds of moral decency as much as possible while staying within the bounds of legality. It seems more than plausible that he violated the law on several occasions in doing so, such as when he asked the Georgia secretary of state to find him the votes needed to win the 2020 presidential election.
There is also the satisfaction of seeing one of the noblest principles of liberal democracy in action. After all, the promise that no man, not even a former president, will be above the law is a great, hard-won achievement.
And yet my main reaction to Trump’s indictment for bribing pornstar Stormy Daniels is the feeling that the gigantic spectacle that is about to consume America could, ultimately account, serve him rather than harm him.
In recent months, the political disappearance of Trump seemed to finally become a realistic hypothesis. His ability to capture the attention of American audiences was slowly eroding. It seemed increasingly plausible that he would lose his bid for the Republican nomination. And although he considered running as an independent in such a case, that quest would likely prove to be a pipe dream. He was in danger of going down in the history books as a triple loser.
It is quite possible that his trial in Manhattan will accelerate his political downfall. Perhaps he will reveal acts so shocking that they will weaken the resolve of his followers. Perhaps Republican donors and primary voters will find him too struggling to be re-elected. Or perhaps his detention will make it more difficult to conduct an effective campaign.
political witch hunt
But for now, all signs point in the opposite direction. For the next few months, all of America will be talking about Trump. His main rivals for the nomination have already joined him in denouncing the imminence of the trial. In polls, as the indictment loomed, his support grew. It is now far from unimaginable that he could win the Republican nomination – and possibly even the presidency itself – while sitting in a jail cell.
All of this assumes that Trump is indeed doomed. But this is far from certain. The legal theory Trump is being sued on appears to be fairly novel. The latest attempt to convict former presidential candidate John Edwards on similar charges has failed. And if Trump wins his case, he can claim that the people agreed with him, which will put him in an even stronger political position.
There is also the risk of more lasting harm. The American judicial system is by nature much more political than that of other countries. Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan prosecutor charged with prosecuting Trump, is a Democrat who ran for office in one of America’s most progressive regions promising to bring down Trump. Even if the case he presents proves to be beyond reproach, the involvement of partisan officials who owe their office to the favor of the voters and who have made known their (understandable) disgust for the defendant in broad daylight allows Trump and his allies to portray the impending trial as a political witch hunt.
The precedent set by Trump’s trial also makes it possible, if not likely, that other presidents will suffer the same fate. Pretty soon, a Republican will likely run for prosecutor in one of the more conservative parts of the country promising to indict Joe Biden or Barack Obama. And even though their case, unlike Trump’s, is likely to lack a rational basis, they may well succeed in persuading a grand jury to go ahead with a full trial. Trump is the first US president to be indicted in the country’s history; I doubt he will be the last to earn this dubious honor in my lifetime.
So, yes, I would get great personal satisfaction from seeing Trump go to jail. But my ultimate goal is to see him lose his grip on the American political system. And the temporary joy of seeing him stand trial will be cold comfort should it somehow help revive his political career.
American political scientist, Yascha Mounk is the author of The great experience (Editions of the Observatory).