The focus on American weapons and money hides an even bigger problem – Trump may also make it difficult for the EU to continue its own support.
He has several aces up his sleeve to pull out if he really wants to force Ukraine into a capitulation.
Storm Shadow and Scalp are the names of European cruise robots. They are developed by European companies, built in Europe and sent to Ukraine by Britain and France – who also want to give Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia.
But the robots contain some components that are manufactured in the United States, and therefore the American president also has co-determination rights over where they are exported and how they are used. President Biden has said no to striking targets inside Russia.
Can’t do anything about it
There is nothing either Starmer or Macron can do about it. The robots stay on Ukrainian territory.
In principle, Trump can say the same thing about all European weapons and all ammunition containing American components.
A halt to sending additional F-16s to Ukraine could be a first step. But other weapons and tanks can also be stopped if they contain semiconductors or other components from the United States.
Orban and Trump can stop the money
Across budget-strapped Europe, people are getting tired of financially supporting Ukraine.
A new plan between the EU and the G7 will solve that problem.
The interest from frozen Russian assets is to be used to pay off the interest on loans given to Ukraine. The country gets money and it costs nothing (except for the Russian oligarchs, who don’t get access to their money and superyachts).
Germany has already budgeted for the plan to become a reality next year.
But sanctions against Russia must be renewed every six months by all EU countries, and one leader in particular is constantly problematic – Trump’s best European friend Viktor Orbán.
If Trump decides that completely cutting off military aid to Ukraine is not enough to force the country into peace talks with Russia, he and Orbán can also cut off a large portion of the planned money.
If Trump goes that far, Putin can celebrate at home in Moscow. Then neither Ukraine nor Europe will have much to oppose anymore.