Finland goes to parliamentary elections on April 2, and opinion polls show that the fight for votes is fierce.
Not least the liberal-conservative Samlingspartiet should prepare for a nail-biter, according to professor emeritus Göran Djupsund at Åbo Akademi. This despite the party leading in opinion polls.
— Earlier, the Samlingspartiet looked like it was heading for a walk-off victory, but now you probably don’t sleep very well at night at the party office. For a long time, the Samlingspartiet had a big lead, but in recent polls, support has eroded quite substantially, he says.
The support for the parties in EPN’s latest party survey (March 2023). Welfare an important issue
In connection with the start of the Finnish election campaign at the beginning of March, the country’s Ministry of Finance issued a call to the incoming government to tighten the belt considerably. Among other things, the ministry pointed out that Finland must annually save 1,600 euros – close to 18,000 kroner – per inhabitant in order to overcome the public deficit.
According to Göran Djupsund, much of the upcoming election campaign will also be dominated by issues relating to welfare – which, according to him, are tackled in different ways by the Finnish parties.
— From the side of the Gathering Party, they talk about the financial deficit and about necessary cuts in the public sector, which many observers claim may not be the right strategy in an election campaign. They probably won’t attract the undecided voters with this message – which is neither positive nor forward-looking, he says.
Antti Petteri Orpo is the leader of the Samlingspartiet. Archive image.
The Social Democrats also focus on issues related to welfare. During the party meeting in November, the party leader – also the Prime Minister – Sanna Marin highlighted the Nordic welfare state as an example of secured freedom and the possibility of a good life for ordinary people.
Despite last year’s turbulence in the form of a leaked film where Sanna Marin is seen partying with her friends, her position with the social democratic voters also seems to be unthreatened, according to Göran Djupsund.
— I would say that she is decisive for the Social Democrats. If she had resigned in November as party chairman, the party would not have had a chance to defend its position, he says and continues:
— The central thing is that Sanna Marin is seen as a guarantor of a government base with the Social Democrats as prime minister’s party. And many of those who will vote for the party may not have really understood what the Social Democrats stand for in this particular election.
“Can do a sprint”
Judging by the opinion polls, the top battle for the election victory in April looks like it could be unusually tough for the Finnish parties – but Göran Djupsund wants to flag for a not too zealous reading of the polls.
— The true Finns, who are now in third place, have in many elections achieved a result that was better than what the opinion polls have shown. Which also makes the other parties nervous, he says and continues:
— Should the True Finns make a really good sprint, they could even become the biggest party. But having said that – all three parties at the top are also clearly within the statistical margin of error.