Economic surveys that are falling, productivity at half mast, an unemployment rate that is rising… Between the start of 2024, when the government was banking on an “OG effect” and the current period marked by a feeling of loss of control, the contrast is striking. Two elements pushed France towards the doldrums: the dissolution of the National Assembly announced by Emmanuel Macron in June and the slippage in public finances, unprecedented outside of times of crisis. How to bounce back? The slightest headwind today seems capable of plunging the country into the start of a recession. Will the fatal blow come from the bond markets? Unless the trade war or bad weather destroys several sections of our economy, already bloodless even before any budgetary effort. L’Express reviews the main risks facing the new tandem of ministers Eric Lombard (Economy) and Amélie de Montchalin (Budget).
With each new announcement, concern increases a notch. Closure of two Michelin factories and its 1,250 jobs threatened, 2,389 positions eliminated at Auchan, 869 at Valeo, 163 at ArcelorMittal… The list of social plans within certain emblematic groups in France is endless. lengthen in recent months. Some industrialists are even on reprieve, such as the very symbolic Coq Sportif, equipment supplier for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, or the Isère chemist Vencorex, both placed in receivership.
In total, cumulative insolvencies over twelve months approached the 65,000 mark in November, up almost 10% compared to the average for the 2010-2019 period. A decline that the Banque de France again and again attributes to the post-Covid catch-up – during the health crisis, many companies owed their survival only to the windfall of generalized public support. In reality, the evil seems deeper. “We have emerged from the miraculous bubble of the 2020s, the economy has gradually slowed down since the end of 2022,” observes economist Bertrand Martinot. For this labor market specialist, we must not turn a blind eye: “The multiplication of social plans is representative of a situation which is deteriorating.”
In 2025, the black series could increase. “Today, we see on a daily basis a mass of companies that feel helpless,” says Denis Le Bossé, president of the Arc firm, specializing in debt recovery, who considers that the number of failures is still far from having reached its peak. High interest rates and repayment of state-guaranteed loans, which most leaders took out during the pandemic, continue to weigh. Especially since they were already moving forward with a ball and chain: “French companies are very indebted compared to their European neighbors. The lack of equity is a structural problem”, judges Bertrand Martinot.
Business failures: the end of post-Covid catch-up?
© / THE EXPRESS
Uncertainty about unemployment
Upon arrival, what will be the impact on unemployment? INSEE estimates that it will be limited, with a rate which would reach 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025, only 0.2 points more than in the third quarter of 2024. For its part, the Banque de France expects 7 .8%. “The various forecasting institutes predict a slight increase, a realistic scenario given the current situation,” notes researcher Christine Erhel, holder of the Labor and Employment Economics chair at Cnam.
A new censorship of the Prime Minister would not have major consequences on employment, adds Bertrand Martinot: “The economy is much more stable than governments.” Christine Erhel, however, identifies “many question marks, particularly linked to the international context: the election of Trump, the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, and the delicate economic situation that Germany is going through, against a backdrop of political uncertainty”.
For several months, the objective of full employment in 2027, trumpeted at the start of his second term by Emmanuel Macron, seemed compromised. Tending towards 5% unemployment today seems mission impossible.
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