35 million new cases of cancer in 2050, or 77% more than currently. These are the grim estimates of the cancer agency of the World Health Organization (WHO), published this Thursday. In 2022, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) estimates that 20 million new cases will be detected and 9.7 million people will die from the disease worldwide.
“The rapid increase in the global burden of cancer reflects both population aging and growth, as well as changes in population exposure to risk factors,” reads the report. IARC published a few days before World Cancer Day, this Sunday.
The causes include tobacco, alcohol and obesity, but also air pollution. So, according to Public health France40,000 deaths per year in France are attributable to fine particles (PM2.5).
The IARC also highlights the shortcomings of certain countries in the fight against this disease. Only 39% of the countries participating in the IARC study “covered the basics of cancer management as part of their health services offered to all citizens”, making access to care more complex for the populations concerned.
Importance of early diagnosis
Furthermore, the survey reveals strong inequalities between countries in the treatment and diagnosis of cancers. For example, in a country with a low Human Development Index (HDI, an index based on several criteria such as GDP per capita, level of education, etc.), a woman will be 50% less likely to be diagnosed with cancer of the breast than a woman living in a country with a high HDI.
Thus, the risk for the first of dying from this disease is much higher, “due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment”, it is specified in the report. The IARC emphasizes the importance of early detection. This allows, in the case of breast cancer, 99 out of 100 women to be alive five years after diagnosis, according to the National Cancer Institute.
In low HDI countries, the WHO agency predicts a 142% increase in incidence – that is, the number of cases appearing in a year. Consequently, “cancer mortality in these countries is expected to almost double in 2050.
Prevalence of lung cancer
In 2022, lung cancer was found to be the leading cause of cancer deaths, with 1.8 million deaths, or nearly 19% of the total. “The re-emergence of lung cancer as the most common cancer is likely linked to persistent tobacco consumption in Asia,” says the IARC.
This continent concentrates almost half (56%) of the cancer cases detected in 2022 (9.8 million) – knowing that more than half of the world population lives in this region. Asia is thus in the lead ahead of Europe (20% of cases, Russia included), followed by Africa, Latin America and North America (around 7% of cases for each of these regions).
However, there are gender disparities in incidence and mortality. If lung, prostate and colon cancers are the three most common causes of cancer deaths in men, breast cancer dominates in women, with 670,000 deaths in 2022.