Is the government of François Bayrou less ambitious than that of Michel Barnier to restore the country’s finances? Bercy is now targeting a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2025, said this Friday, January 3 The World And Les Echos. This figure is higher than the 5% ambitious by the previous government, after an expected slippage to 6.1% in 2024.
The quantified objective of reducing deficits “will be the fruit of discussions” with the political groups of Parliament, government spokesperson Sophie Primas simply replied, in her press report of the first Council of Ministers. of the Bayrou era. “The deficit will be the result of the consultations and the path that will be found during the consultations in Bercy and also for the PLFSS (Social Security financing bill, editor’s note). So, we will first set this dialogue” , affirmed the government representative.
It could be between 5.4 or 5.1, 4.9, 4.8 (as a percentage of GDP, Editor’s note), we will see the result of these negotiations and we will see where the path is and what is bearable for the deficit,” she stressed. In an interview with La Tribune SundayEric Lombard, had specified that the deficit would be included in the budgetary text at “a little above 5%” of GDP, “in order to protect growth”.
A downward growth forecast?
With a view to involving them in the preparation of the 2025 budget, of which France is currently deprived due to the censorship of Michel Barnier’s government on December 4, the Ministers of the Economy, Eric Lombard, and of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, have planned to consult all the political forces represented in Parliament. “First contacts” began on December 30, but discussions will formally begin next week, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which has not communicated a precise timetable. These meetings, scheduled until the day of the general policy declaration, will be the subject of conclusions which will translate “into government proposals amending the 2025 budget”.
The new version of the budgetary text should be based on less favorable macroeconomic forecasts, even if Bercy has not confirmed that the growth forecast would be lowered from 1.1% to 0.8% for 2025, as claimed the newspaper Opinion.
Regarding the progress of the examination of the draft budget, the government spokesperson indicated that she did not yet have an exact timetable for […] give”, but that “the main orientations will probably be in the general policy declaration”. In December, François Bayrou said he hoped for adoption of the budget “in mid-February”, without however being “sure of getting there”. He had specified that he would start from “the copy that was voted on” in Parliament before censorship.