Could a twenty-eighth member, unthinkable a few days ago, join the European Union (EU) in record time? A hand was extended to Ukraine on Sunday by the president of the European executive, Ursula von der Leyen, in an interview with Euronews. “We have many topics that we work closely on and over time they are ours and we want them to be inside” the EU, she said, on the subject. of this country brutally attacked by its Russian neighbour.
The answer obviously did not take long, in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday urged the continental alliance to integrate his country “without delay”, “via a new special procedure”, he said in a video. “I’m sure it’s right. I’m sure it’s possible,” said the former actor, currently on all fronts. “Ukraine will send an official request, the European Commission will have to express an official opinion and the Council will decide”, prudently added, in the process, the President of the European Council Charles Michel. Symbol of the emergency on the Ukrainian side, the required document was signed in the afternoon.
How to analyze this connection? What can it lead to? Some answers with geopolitician Cyrille Bret, teacher at Sciences Po Paris and associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute.
The Express. Is Ukraine’s request for “immediate” integration realistic?
Cyrille Bret. It is above all an extremely strong symbolic gesture, because Ukraine is not at the level militarily, administratively or even politically to engage in negotiations for accession to the European Union. This is an extremely long, complex and demanding process, which requires kilos of legislation to be assimilated, to be put in place, under the control of the European institutions and which Ukraine is not capable of carrying out, let alone during this war. For Ukraine, this declaration marks above all its desire to detach itself from the orbit of Russia, in order to attach itself to Western Europe. This is due to the roots of Ukrainian identity and the Maidan revolution in 2013-2014, which led to the first conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea. At the time, this crisis arose from the refusal of the Ukrainian government to conclude an association and free trade agreement with Brussels. Here, then, Ukraine is showing its desire for Europe a little more, through even stronger action, membership of the EU. And this, therefore, even if it is not realistic in the immediate future, even catastrophic at the diplomatic level towards countries which have been negotiating their accession to the European Union for a long time, such as North Macedonia, Serbia or even the ‘Albania.
Why is this request happening now?
In my opinion, we are at the maximum of tensions. An annexation is plausible, the use of nuclear weapons has been brandished… Russia cannot do more harm to Ukraine than what it is doing today. In the midst of a battle, therefore, this request for membership underlines the interest of his presidency in protecting the Ukrainians, their lives, their State. It also gives a prospect of lasting peace to the population. Europe is the dream of millions of inhabitants. Finally, the Europeans are also more than ever mobilized in the defense of Ukraine, and therefore cannot leave this request deaf. It’s a moment to seize.
But without possible accession to the European Union in the short term, how to satisfy Ukraine quickly?
With a friendship treaty that includes several components: legal, military, security, customs, commercial, for example. In short: a very strong solidarity mechanism, but without the complexity or duration of membership of the European Union. Which wouldn’t come as a surprise after all, and not just in view of the current context, since Ukraine is the most important member of the Eastern Partnership, which already governs relations with many of the EU’s neighbors such as Moldova, Georgia and Armenia. It is already a powerful tool of influence in his hands. It is against this mechanism that Vladimir Putin created the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
It remains, however, very important for the EU to react quickly, because refusing to accept Ukraine would be seen as a betrayal in the country, and in Russia as a sign of weakness. There is also a competition for influence not to be underestimated with the United States and NATO, which remains the largest military alliance in the world and in the history of humanity. This is something the EU cannot provide, despite recent military aid.
The European Union must therefore not waver, in order to protect Ukraine, the Ukrainians, and it has a real card to play with the refugee crisis that is looming, because of this invasion. The Ukrainians must be extremely well received and supported by the Europeans, the credibility of the alliance depends on it. Finally, it is something that the United States cannot offer.