Towards a new historic heat wave in France over the next 10 days

After the early and intense heat wave in mid-June 2022, France will undergo a new exceptional “blowtorch” exactly one month later. For a few days, the weather forecast models play yo-yo: if the heat wave was considered exceptional and lasting throughout the country, of the same type as that of 2003, during the release of models weather report of this Sunday, the new forecasts of this Monday morning have again changed the situation at the regional level. The risk of a lasting heat wave is increasingly confirmed for the south of the country, but not necessarily for the northern half. This Monday, the forecasts point to a peak in intensity on Wednesday, with locally 37°C in the north, near Nantes in particular, which is in the crosshairs of the advection ofair warm southwest. Elsewhere in France, Meteo France predicts 36°C in Paris, 35°C in Strasbourg and 39°C in the south. The two nights from Tuesday to Wednesday and from Wednesday to Thursday will be stifling, before a relative cooling Thursday and Friday in the north, with more breathable nights. The parade on July 14 will therefore be very hot, but not exceptional in Paris, but still just as suffocating in the south. Lows over the British Isles send cooler air Thursday and Friday, but warm air will also move over the British Isles over the weekend.

Burning air over all of France from Sunday

The weekend of July 16-17 will be marked by a new worrying intensification: the cold drop located over Spain and Portugal, which is bringing warm air up in its rotation, should rise towards Brittany. In this case, it will propel scorching Spanish air over the northern half from Sunday. From Sunday, it is not impossible that 40°C will be reached in the north on Sunday and Monday. Monday could be marked by a heat widespread extreme over the country. According Francois Jobardforecaster at Météo France, “ having an event as strong as the heat wave of 2003 is a possibility that cannot be ruled out, in terms of intensity, and perhaps in terms of duration if the event persists for a fortnight. Reliable forecasts do not go beyond 8 days, so it will be necessary to monitor the evolution. The position of the cold drop sending hot air is responsible for the uncertainties”. In any case, the very high heat will continue for at least ten days in the south, and if this situation persists, the month of July 2022 may be historic in terms of heat and drought. As the forecaster of Météo France points out: “ temperatures may drop on Tuesday July 19, but temperatures will still stay above 30°C almost everywhere, so there is no real cooling in sight”.

To believe the DTN medium-term forecast throughout the month of July, the heat is not about to leave France: average temperatures in France should be 3 to 9°C higher than normal for the season until the end of the month.

The new heat wave arriving in France will be longer

Article of Karine Durandpublished on July 8, 2022

The heat wave envisaged for next week is confirmed and should be longer than expected, with temperatures above 30°C over a large part of mainland France. No rain in sight.

France will once again experience widespread heatwaves during the first week of the long summer holidays. If it is not possible to speak of a heat wave given the forecasts for this Friday (which are subject to change), it is certain that the temperatures will exceed the seasonal averages by at least 5°C for a week, or even more. A depression centered over Portugal will bring warm air up for several days over Western Europe. According Sebastien Leasforecaster at Météo France, “ the question is whether it will be very hot, or very very hot! »

The heat will indeed perhaps be less intense than expected a few days ago, but more durable: at least a week, even two weeks, and without a drop of rain for at least 10 days. The heat stroke will begin in the Pyrénées Orientales this weekend, before invading the west and north-west on Tuesday, then the rest of France on Wednesday. These widespread high temperatures will last until at least Sunday July 17, or even perhaps the entire following week. The official heat wave thresholds will not be reached a priori because the night temperatures should remain bearable.

At this time, Météo France still forecasts 32 to 36°C in the northern half and 35 to 38°C in the southern half. Unlike the mid-June heat wave, it is not certain that an extreme heat peak will be reached during a day, but rather a lasting, sunny and dry hot plateau. Parisian parade on Thursday July 14th will undoubtedly take place in very high temperatures and many fireworks will certainly be canceled in the evening due to the high risk of fires.

It is confirmed: France will experience a new episode of heat wave next week

Article by Karine Durand, published on 6/07/2022

The first week of the long summer holidays will probably be marked by the return of very hot weather: is there a risk of a new heat wave like that of last June? Update on the weather forecast.

While the last quarter (April-May-June) was the hottest observed in France since 1900, with an average temperature of 16.9°C, the heat seems to be continuing for the start of summer. The weather context envisaged, without certainty, for next week, recalls for the moment that of the heat wave from June 15 to 19 : a depression centered on Spain will bring warm air up towards France. If this is confirmed, it is not impossible that the heat wave thresholds will again be reached in the southwest, with temperatures exceeding 40°C during the day and tropical nights for several days in a row.

Strong heat in the south for sure

However, the reliability of weather forecasts is very limited one week before. It is certain that the country will experience hot weather and even very hot in the south. The possibility of a heat wave seems to be confirmed more and more, but it is far too early to envisage a heat wave as intense as that of last June. Temperatures will rise significantly from Monday in the southwest, then the heat should reach the northwest on Tuesday with possibly more than 30°C, even 35°C, and the rest of the northern half should be affected between Wednesday and Thursday July 14th. From Friday, the situation is too far away to be reliable: either the heat will continue to rise and spread to the east, or the temperatures will start falling again.