To ensure a future at Matignon, François Bayrou will have to resist the motion of censure which will be tabled next Tuesday by LFI. To do this, he must obtain guarantees from the PS on pensions and tie up the famous “non-censorship pact”.
François Bayrou will deliver his general policy declaration (DPG) on January 14. The opportunity for La France Insoumise (LFI), as it has already stated, to file a motion of censure against the government of the newly appointed tenant of Matignon. If this fringe of the left is already against the Prime Minister, and that is the least that can be said, the other forces placed on the left of the French political spectrum are neither closed to discussion , nor totally favorable to the orientation which should be deployed by François Bayrou.
This is why the new head of the executive must still convince the Socialists, the Communists, as well as the Environmentalists. All will give a first response to the famous non-censorship pact – so desired by the government so as not to fall sooner than that led by Michel Barnier – during the vote on the rebellious motion of censure, in the lower house of Parliament, Tuesday next. In reality, everything could be decided this weekend, in the preamble to François Bayrou’s speech, and above all, behind the scenes during the last consultations.
If the National Rally (RN) was until now perceived as the arbiter of the game and the guarantor of the government’s survival, particularly with the previous executive, it should not pose any big problems for François Bayrou’s team this time – here. Eric Lombard (Minister of the Economy) and Amélie de Montchalin (Public Accounts) receive RN deputies Sébastien Chenu and Jean-Philippe Tanguy this Friday. According to information from Politico, the latter “should be content to defend their counter-budget”. In other words, they will not vote for the motion of censure initiated by LFI.
Pension reform: justice of the peace for the PS
On the other hand, discussions are in full swing with the left, and this is where everything will be at stake for the government of François Bayrou. “We are in the idea of a non-censorship agreement whose principles could be announced during the DPG,” an executive advisor told Politico. And one subject is on everyone’s lips: pensions. It is the central element that could determine whether or not the left walks with the government in place and accepts the non-censorship pact. The Socialist Party (PS) is calling for a suspension of the application of the age measure of 64 years for 6 months, while the reform is renegotiated, as indicated by the president of the socialist senators, Patrick Kanner.
“We fought tooth and nail this reform which we consider socially unjust (…) Today, if we had an absolute majority in the Assembly, the reform would be repealed. We would return to the Touraine reform”, which fixed the contribution period is 43 years, with a legal retirement age of 62, Patrick Kanner declared this Friday at France Info. If Macronie does not go into this area, obviously, it has no other choice than to take into account socialist demands, otherwise the executive’s hours would be numbered. One thing is certain, the PS is clearly reaching out. “If we are heard, and it is a matter of days, or even hours, there will be no censorship,” assures the strong man of the left in the Senate.
On the other hand, the environmentalist MP Sandrine Rousseau has already indicated that she would vote for the motion of censure. If it is imitated by all EELV deputies, this already represents 28 votes against the government in place. This fragmentation of the left could therefore work against François Bayrou as he approaches his general policy declaration.
LR and the central block behind Bayrou, unless…
What about the presidential majority – however relative it may be? While a tax on high wealth, as mentioned by the newspaper L’Opinion, would be considered in Bercy, the Élysée Palace for its part did not wish to provide any details. So as not to offend the government’s allies? Difficult to say, but François Bayrou will also have to be careful not to completely forget his friends from Horizons and the Republicans. “If you gain on the left what you lose in the common base, it’s useless,” said a government advisor ironically this Thursday in the columns of Politico.
Precisely, unraveling the pension reform could be a red line not to be crossed for the Macron camp, and the Ensemble pour la République deputies. If François Bayrou’s allies do not seem ready to play a trick on him, be careful not to pull the rope too much, otherwise you risk losing everything. On the right, among Les Républicains, pension reform will also be a key decision-making element. If the executive just makes adjustments, there will be no problem, no censorship. On the other hand, “if there is a questioning of the fundamental parameters, that is another subject”, warns someone close to the leader of the LR deputies Laurent Wauquiez, to Politico. The government is warned, to make choices, yes, but within the limits of “reasonable”.