“Obviously, there are always those who take themselves for Jean Moulin”, laughs Luc *, sub-prefect. A few days before the second round of the presidential election, the corridors of the prefectures and other central administrations are buzzing with a rumor that might have seemed crazy a few years ago: what if Marine Le Pen finally arrived at the Elysée? In the figures, the gap is widening between Emmanuel Macron (54.5%, +1) and Marine Le Pen (45.5%, -1) in voting intentions, according to the latest Elabe opinion poll for L’Express and BFM TV, in partnership with SFR. But the scenario, deemed not very credible in 2017, is gradually making its way into the brains of senior officials. “Everyone imagines what they would do in this situation,” laughs Luc. To resign ? Change position? Stay in place ? The earthquake that would constitute in the high administration the election of Marine Le Pen gives something to discuss at the coffee machine.
“I was talking about it with a prefect a few days ago, who told me that today everyone is having fun playing the great resistant, the absolute defender of the republican idea”, continues the young man. The figure of Jean Moulin, high official and French resistance fighter, who remained prefect of Eure-et-Loir under the Vichy regime, is thus evoked by the most romantic of them. “We don’t know what she would do if she came to power. The general feeling is even that she won’t get there. However, many play at being scared,” says Luc. The exercise is not confined to the walls of the prefectures. Everywhere in the administration, senior civil servants are wondering about the place they would occupy under a Le Pen presidency. In a high administration where many explain that they voted for Macron – “90% of us do”, thus assures us a senior official – the possibility of serving a policy led by the leader of the National Rally frightens more of one. But if the idea of a resignation is toyed with by some, many are caught up in “reality”: their financial future and job security…
“I would leave the central administration”
François*, a senior civil servant in a ministry, also observed this pendulum swing exercised by his peers. “It’s strange, he says. We are in a kind of denial, where we tell ourselves that she has no chance of passing. And then, we realize that what has long been only a theoretical question – the extreme right in power – came closer to reality with its presence once again in the second round”. This automatically provokes discussions. “We never approach the question head-on, at work, because we are marked by the duty of reserve, he explains. But the question arises in our private discussions, from the coffee break to the restaurant”. Inspector of finance, the 30-year-old admits to seriously thinking about his future with his colleagues for a few weeks. “If Marine Le Pen were elected, I think I would manage not to be in a position that is directly attached to the government, he explains. I would probably leave the central administration to opt for something else, such as the communities, for example. A way to remain in the public service, while avoiding having to directly apply the policy of the government in place.
“You have to find a hideout, in short”, mocks Thomas *, another senior official. This state agent, currently in post at the Ministry of the Interior, says he too complied with this “intellectual exercise” with colleagues. “I spoke with sub-prefects, in particular. Many of those I know want to find a temporary refuge, outside Beauvau, which is still a very exposed ministry. I understand them”. But Thomas wants above all to be realistic. “These plans only work in theory, because on D-Day, the number of hideouts will be limited. So what to do?” he wonders. In the case of a victory for Marine Le Pen on Sunday, Thomas explains that he wants to wait… for the legislative elections. “I will watch the verdict of the ballot boxes: in the rather unlikely event that the National Rally manages to obtain a majority, I would change my position, trying to return to Bercy, or to another public operator”, confides this other member of the Finance Inspectorate.
A “small minority” of resigners
On April 12, Thomas watched with concern Marine Le Pen’s press conference on democracy, institutions and the exercise of power. “I watched her carefully and understood that she had factored in the possibility that a certain number of institutions would play their role of counter-power in the face of her policy, and that her response to her would be a circumvention by a kind of permanent referendum”, he analyzes. During her speech, the candidate of the National Rally notably announced that she wanted to reform the Constitution as soon as she arrived, with a referendum on “national priority” – ensuring, wrongly, that the Constitutional Council could not contradict her. She would also like to “make possible the organization of popular initiative referendums on all subjects”. “It only announces anarchy. A permanent chaos that alarms me,” he describes. But not to the point of resigning, for example, as some of his colleagues can assure him between two drinks. “These people are only a small minority. Do not expect to see a hemorrhage of senior officials if Marine Le Pen was announced the winner on the evening of April 24, predicts Thomas. We must be realistic: if everyone resigned, where would we go to work?”
The idea of resignation, raised by some senior officials, raises their eyes to heaven for others. “Last I heard, Marine Le Pen never said she was going to turn the country into a dictatorship, points out Maurice*. I wouldn’t like it, but she would be victorious thanks to a Republican vote. ‘State”. Maurice nevertheless admits to being uneasy at the idea of serving in his administration. “I can’t tell if she’s a Republican or not, he explains. And then, I have a loan to pay. I can’t leave my job without a good reason. So, I console myself by saying that I would probably be more useful inside than outside”. This concept of “resistance from within” is thus taken up by many of the senior officials interviewed. “It is above all a wait-and-see attitude, points out Luc. Among the prefects, for example, we say to ourselves that they will be able to juggle between their desire to hold the house while respecting the will of the executive in place.
A point of view shared today by many senior civil servants. “One element is essential to the public service: to evoke the jolts and the internal conflicts, notes Luc Rouban, director of research at the CNRS and Cevipof, author in particular of What future for the public service? It all depends on government practices: if the power in place indulges, as in Hungary, in a nibbling of the rule of law, the question of resignations may arise”. It remains to be seen whether, in this case, they would really be “Impossible to say: it falls within everyone’s areas of appreciation”, points out Luc Rouban, who adds: “Above all, all of this remains pure speculation”.
* The first name has been changed