To beat Vladimir Putin, Sweden relies on online bets – L’Express

In Sweden, everyone can help Ukraine with one click. How ? By connecting to Glimt.NU, an online Paris platform funded by the Ministry of Defense whose objective is to help kyiv in its decision-making. To beat Putin, the collective intelligence of thousands of Swedish bettors (or French or English, etc.) can be more effective than the best expert analyzes. Hence the idea of ​​requesting the opinions of civil society as a whole. Since the end of January, the Swedes who wish can therefore answer a battery of questions on the current conflict: “How many North Korean soldiers will fight in June 2025?”; “How many Russian missile attacks in February 2025?”; “When will Russia push Ukraine out of Koursk?” Or again: “Will Russia be liquidity by October?” The Trilingual site also exists in French and English.

The results expressed in the form of percentages (77 % like the Russian population manifest in the street against war in 2025) or dates (the year 2026 will mark the end of the Russian aggression for 35 % of bettors) allow to Determine probabilities for this or that scenario to materialize. From this data, which is then transmitted by the Swedish soldiers to their Ukrainian counterparts, kyiv’s strategists have elements that feed their reflection before their decision -making.

According to Försvarets Forskningsinstitut (Faith), the very famous research institute of the Swedish Ministry of Defense which finances this project at 1.5 million euros, the results provided by the panel of Internet users are more reliable than projections of specialists at About the evolution of war. “Research shows that experts in a given subject are not particularly relevant when it comes to predicting the future,” explains Ivar Ekman, the coordinator of the Glimt project, who is part of the 16th package Help provided to kyiv by Stockholm. In January, the Swedish conservative government announced additional aid of 1.2 billion euros, the largest amount since the start of the conflict, three years ago. “When it comes to reading in a crystal ball, Think-Tank analysts are not better than the sum of idle retirees, insomniac mothers or procrastine students who, taken together, constitute a collective intelligence”, Add Ekman.

Last month, the Glimt project was presented to the high military hierarchy and to the King of Sweden at the defense conference which is held every year in the small town of Sälen, lost in the snowy countryside. Inspired by the concept of collective prediction used since the 2000s by theIntelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity From the American Ministry of Defense, Glimt is based on the idea that one is more intelligent with several. “It is not a question of having an opinion but a thoughtful opinion on a given situation, details Ivar Ekman, in Stockholm. It is easy to confuse what we do with an opinion poll but that is not this Who interests us.

At the small game of predictions, some individuals are more gifted than others. “The good forecastists are generally quite discreet people, as often evidenced by the pseudos they choose, such as ‘silence’ or ‘modest'”, explains Emile Servan Schreiber, the French boss of Hypermind who hosts the Glimt platform. naked. “These are individuals who do not seek to convince others but simply to be right and not to be mistaken, he continues. They are also people capable of empathy-they have the ability to put themselves in the place of others -With an active opening of mind, that is to say likely to change their minds, devoid of blinders and which may think against themselves. “

These profiles of individuals, more inclined to understand the future than others, represent around 2 % of the population. Identified by the platform, the opinions of good bettors are valued by glimt algorithms. The opinions of “superparers” benefit from overlying in order to give more weight to their opinions. “There is a fun dimension in our device but no amount of money comes into play, explains Ivar Ekman. Here, we bet for a good cause, for the pleasure of being right and seeing his name appear at the top of the ranking of superpaers. “

For the time being, the panel of forecasters is limited to a few thousand bettors – who are for example 90 % to think that “Russia will not help Georgia in 2025”. But the Think-Tank Faith and the Swedish Defense Ministry hope to attract much forecasters. An advertising campaign in the metro and on shelters makes Glimt’s advertisement with this slogan: “Our new weapon in the struggle for the freedom of Ukraine.” The website was also presented to the powerful TCO public service union so that it promotes it to its 1.2 million members.

Competitions between students in “political science” of the universities of Lund and Uppsala (the two main faculties of the country) are envisaged. The ideal, according to the public authorities, would be to mobilize hundreds of thousands of bettors. “Beyond aid to Ukraine, this device is also a tool that can help maintain the general public for the war in Ukraine, explains Ivar Ekman. It is a way of raising awareness among civil society The permanence of the Russian danger and to test its capacity for mobilization and commitment of the Swedes. “

In fact, since the first Russian assault in Donbass and Crimea in 2014, Swedish company is one of the most mobilized in favor of Ukraine, alongside Poland, Baltic Pays or Finland. This undoubtedly explains that: through its multisecular history, Sweden has delivered around twenty wars against the Russian bear. And these days, the war (hybrid) is getting closer to the Swedish ribs with multiplication of acts of sabotage against submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. Even if the Swedes have fun betting online, they know that war is not a game.