Great passions fade over time. Tinder learns this lesson that its customers surely know. While Hinge and Bumble show growing numbers of new downloads, those of Tinder – certainly much higher – are sagging: 71 million in 2022 against nearly 80 million downloads in 2020, according to data from Sensor Tower revealed by Bloomberg.
A sign that Tinder’s golden age is probably behind it. The flame logo app has set the dating industry ablaze in just over a decade. His stroke of genius? To have transformed an intimidating moment into a simple and ultra-fun experience, close to that of a video game or a social network. Signing up on Tinder takes just a few minutes and sorting candidates is done with a simple flick of the finger on the screen: a swipe on the right to indicate interest, a swipe on the left to retouch the profile. Not very romantic? Maybe. But so practical that the gesture was immediately imposed. “It was copied by everyone. It became a brand. We use the verb swipe on a daily basis as we speak of googling something, which is the Holy Grail for a digital service”, argues Stéphane Distinguin, founding president of EY Fabernovel.
The success is brilliant. Since its inception in 2012, Tinder has been downloaded over 530 million times. It now averages 1.5 million encounters per week. “At any given time, about a quarter of 18-34 year olds in the US use Tinder. Less than half have never used it. And in Europe it’s pretty much the same. In terms of penetration it’s amazing “, points out Jérôme Colin, associate director of the consulting firm Fifty-five.
While many Internet users previously preferred to keep quiet about having met through these platforms, Tinder has finished making online dating cool. A feat that allowed him to monetize his tool remarkably well. “Tinder has an average revenue per user of 14 dollars, almost three times more than Spotify”, specifies Jérôme Colin.
From Millennials to Generation Z
Tinder, the king of dating, is undoubtedly reaching its limits today. “These services are very generational. Will young users go to the platforms where their parents met? It’s unlikely,” points out Stéphane Distinguin, founding president of EY Fabernovel. The new shoots in the sector also take pleasure in setting themselves apart from their elders. The Snack startup even made its slogan “Not your parent dating app” which could be translated as “nothing to do with the apps your parents use”.
The problem is that at the other end of the spectrum, the generation that has been using Tinder for years is also starting – albeit for other reasons – to take an interest in new services, more oriented towards serious relationships. “The challenge for Tinder will therefore be to maintain a globally stable number of subscribers and to develop monetization tools”, points out Jérôme Colin. Tinder has obviously made this observation. The dating application has recently announced plans to launch an ultra-premium subscription at 500 euros per month. Called Tinder Vault, it would in fact target particularly well-off members, ready to spend more money for even more selective encounters.
Investors, meanwhile, have understood that the period of crazy growth was certainly behind them: the price of the Match group, which generates more than half of its turnover with Tinder, has plummeted by 58% in one year. The mogul of love has no reason to panic. Match has indeed built over the years a veritable dating empire. In addition to a myriad of confidential sites, it brings together under its umbrella more than a dozen major brands that address as many specific audiences, including OKCupid, Meetic and above all Hinge, with growing success and skilfully positioned in the dating niche. serious. “The scale effect comes into play for a group like Match which can pool a lot of resources. This portfolio strategy which covers many markets is the best way to succeed in this industry”, analyzes Jérôme Colin.
If Match succeeds in identifying users who are starting to tire of Tinder and accompanying them to Hinge, he can easily preserve his herd of customers. The group has another trick up its sleeve to last. Because two innovations promise to decisively change the flourishing dating market. First, all technologies offering more immersiveness such as virtual reality or augmented reality. Mark Zuckerberg has certainly upped the swell a little too quickly with his promises of incredible metaverses. We are not yet in the Ready Player One by Steven Spielberg. But the progress in the field is undeniable and will certainly prevail in all areas where interaction counts.
Internet romance scams
The other shift will of course be that of artificial intelligence capable of generating texts and images that seem to have been produced by humans. Already emerging tools offering the shy or those in a hurry that a digital assistant is responsible for flirting in their place. With their artificial photos and texts, generative AIs also risk increasing the number of fake profiles created by scammers that already abound on the majority of dating apps. Players in the sector will therefore have to strengthen their detection systems, otherwise the experience could become unpleasant and scare away customers. “Immersiveness and AI are expensive technologies that will require substantial investments,” emphasizes Stéphane Distinguin. Investments that a group with large pockets like Match will find it easier to make than its smaller competitors.