February 2022, an air of MESSMER PLAN Bis floats on France. On the move to Belfort, Emmanuel Macron announces with great fanfare “the Renaissance” of French nuclear. Relief within the sector. After years of crossing the desert, the atom engineers will finally be able to roll up their sleeves and build new reactors: second generation EPRs (at least six with a first commissioning from 2035), SMRs Size capable of producing heat or electricity, and even AMRs, innovative reduced models that can work by ingesting part of our current nuclear waste.
Three years later, alas, the soufflé fell. Admittedly, the industrial fabric begins to organize. “The revival of a nuclear program over twenty years and possibly more has given visibility to the various players to invest, recruit … Very important work was carried out around supply chains”, assures Claude Jaouen, former director of the ‘Areva reactors activity. However, overall, the promised revival is struggling to materialize. The design studies of large reactors are still not finished. The financing plan for these facilities is long overdue. EDF wiped an embarrassing setback with its SMRs. And in its latest report, published in January, the Court of Auditors draws up a worrying observation. According to her, the sector is not ready. It still has to overcome many challenges. The wise men of rue Cambon notably issue reserves on the profitability of future EPRs. Can we really talk about recovery in its conditions?
“Lyrics, lyrics,” said the song. A feeling of disillusionment gradually gains energy experts. “One of the main problems is that the recovery is too centered on high power reactors, says Jean-Jacques Nieuviaert, former EDF and president of the Society of Studies and Energy Prospective. Big babies It is difficult to make and whose real costs we do not really know. ” Passeed by a consortium of leading companies, the EDF group had yet embarked on the race for ministerrals the flower in the rifle. But, after encouraging beginnings, his Nuward project had to start again on new bases in the summer of 2024. “It’s typically French, we wanted to do too complicated. Result, we lost three or four years and missed a beautiful Opportunity. Safety on our big third generation reactors while leaning them much cheaper SMRs, “deplores Jean-Jacques Nieuviaert. Tailor-made at reasonable prices in a way
By remaining focused on the EPR2, the revival promises to be much more complicated. Because “the beautiful speeches are not enough to revive a long neglected sector”, warns Cécile Maisonneuve, founder of Decysive, firm of prospective and advisory on energy (and columnist in our columns). Skills have been lost, part of the necessary industrial fabric has disappeared … The reconstruction of the whole chain is therefore delicate. On the administration side, some essential cogs for recovery are also lacking. A major difference from France in 1974, the one that was going to write one of the most beautiful pages in its industrial history by building in twenty years a nuclear park of several dozen units.
“Today, there is still a reluctant movement to the atom in a number of administrations and among political figures,” added Bernard Accoyer, former president of the National Assembly and President of PNC-France. One more brake on decision -making, then details of the funding of future EPRs are still waiting. The principle of a zero -rate loan during construction seems to be acted. Like what is done abroad, it could be supplemented by a guaranteed purchase rate for the operator once the commissioning has been made. However, negotiations are dragging out. “On the one hand, EDF is extremely careful in its estimates. The group does not want to plant itself as it did on the construction sites of Hinkley Point C, in England, or Flamanville, in France. On the other, on the other, The state doubts EDF’s ability to be able to control its costs, “summarizes an expert. The first costing, for the construction of the first three pairs of EPR, spoke around 50 billion euros. EDF now talks about 67 billion but many experts expect a much higher final bill.
The sprinkler sprinkled
“In the world, with the exception of China, we see that budget overruns on large nuclear reactors have always been very important,” explains Jean-Jacques Nieuviaert. Heavily in debt, EDF will not be able to cover the cost of investment. Faced with the scale of the sums to mobilize, the State, also in a delicate financial situation, procrastine. “It is the sprinkler sprinkled. If there had not been bad decisions in the past, such as the implementation of the Arenh, this system forcing EDF to sell part of its electricity at broken prices, Or the closure of Fessenheim, we would not be there. Nieuviaert.
Bernard Accoyer also points out the past errors: “If we added today the missing electrons of Fessenheim and there was no modulation, that is to say reduction of the activity of nuclear reactors when Solar and wind power provide energy to the network, French nuclear production has already reached the level it aims for 2030! ” ENR, a pebble in the shoe that continues to exasperate nuclear defenders. “It is often said that their cost is lower than that of nuclear. But, in calculations, we never take into account all the investments induced by these green energies such as electricity storage facilities, or even the connection of wind turbines At sea at the terrestrial network, “regrets Claude Jaouen.
“With a cost of correct capital, if you quickly build nuclear power plants, you have machines to produce electricity twenty-four hours a week, seven days a week, at a cost of compatible electricity With what we need, “says Cécile Maisonneuve. “When we look at our needs and the range of available technologies, it is even the best solution for industry,” confirms Nicolas de Warren, boss of the Union of Energy User Industries (UniDeid). To ensure the competitiveness of the industrial fabric, the spokesperson for electro-intensive companies even imagines a sharing of tasks: the former nuclear, at the already amortized cost, would be reserved in priority for sectors exposed to international competition-therefore, the Industry – while the new nuclear, necessarily more expensive at the start, would provide energy to households and to the services sector.
But will the government one day go to this kind of arbitration? Few experts believe in it. On the contrary, they deplore a lack of vision and inconsistent choices. On electricity consumption, for example. Many efforts have been undertaken to decrease it over the recent period, underline several specialists. This sobriety was to protect us from a possible blackout During the corrosion episode under constraint in 2022 and respond to the problem of global warming. The catch? The demand for electricity remains amorphous, especially since the industry is going badly. “Looking only on the curve of this aggregate, no investor would choose to build EPR today,” admits Cécile Maisonneuve.
Another inconsistency, gas remains less taxed than electricity, while it remains mainly an imported fossil energy. “This differentiated treatment deprives the atom of part of the request. The gas sector remains protected,” denounces a specialist who is now counting on an air call coming from the establishment of large data centers in France, to better justify The establishment of EPRs. “Today, developing renewable energies amounts to buying Chinese products. From a geopolitical point of view, this poses a problem. The only energy which we master all the ins and outs in Europe is nuclear, and We debate endlessly to find out if we are to develop it! We are in an aberrant situation. TO DO ?” Alert Cécile Maisonneuve. Except that in Paris or Brussels the message still has so much trouble getting across.
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