Three weeks after the aborted Wagner Group rebellion in Russia, many questions remain. The future of the paramilitary group itself, as well as that of its personnel, who played an important role in Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, remains uncertain.
On June 29, just a few days after the mutiny, Russian militia boss Evgueni Prigojine was received by Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. The meeting lasted “almost three hours”, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, adding that it had involved 35 people, including “all the commanders and leaders” of the Wagner group. Vladimir Putin “listened to the explanations of the commanders [de Wagner] and offered them alternatives for their future work and their employment for military purposes,” said the spokesperson for the Russian president. The Express deciphers the questions that remain unresolved.
Who to direct Wagner?
This week, Vladimir Putin told the Russian newspaper Kommersant, during an interview at the forum of new technologies in Moscow, that he clearly intended to remove Yevgueni Prigojine from the management of the Wagner group. According to comments reported by the Russian newspaper, Vladimir Putin proposed to the group’s fighters that a high-ranking mercenary, named Andrei Troshev, take command. The man is better known by his nom de guerre: “Sedoi”, which means “gray hair” in Russian. Andrei Troshev is a retired Russian colonel, founding member and executive director of the Wagner Group, according to documents released by the European Union (EU) and France in December 2021 relating to economic sanctions. According to EU notes, “Andrei Troshev is directly involved in the Wagner Group’s military operations in Syria.” “He was particularly involved in the Deir es-Zor region. As such, he makes a crucial contribution to (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad’s war effort and therefore supports and benefits the Syrian regime.”
However, still according to the newspaper Kommersant, Yevgueni Prigojine would have refused this offer. “A lot [de commandants de Wagner] nodded when I said that. But [Evgueni] Prigozhin, who was sitting in front, didn’t see him and said, after listening: ‘No, the guys don’t agree with this solution,’” Vladimir Putin told reporters. American Joe Biden joked Thursday about the risks of eliminating Yevgueni Prigojine, judging that he should be “be careful what he eats”.
What will become of the soldiers?
This Friday, July 14, the Kremlin said it was considering the legalization of private military companies, in particular the Wagner group, whose existence is currently still not authorized by Russian law despite their involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. “Legally, the private military company Wagner does not exist and never existed, this is a question to be studied, to be examined further,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. There are more than ten paramilitary companies like Wagner, named Convoy, Patriot or even Moran Security Group.
Despite the advantage they present for the Russian power, Wagner’s abortive rebellion at the end of June also showed the limits of such an operation, which could ultimately be a factor of internal destabilization. Now is the time to take back control. Moreover, since July 1, private military companies have been required to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence.
On the ground, as far as Wagner’s mercenaries are concerned, they are no longer “significantly” involved in combat operations in Ukraine, according to a Pentagon statement Thursday. However, they were so far very involved in the fighting, especially around the city of Bakhmout, which Prigojine had announced the capture a few weeks ago. “At this point, we do not see Wagner’s forces participating in any meaningful way in combat operations in Ukraine,” Pentagon spokesman General Pat Ryder said at a press conference on Friday (July 14). . But Wagner’s mercenaries would not be at rest for all that. Belarus announced on Friday that mercenaries from the Wagner Group are now serving as “instructors” for its own army. In Belarus, “Wagner’s fighters play the role of instructors in a number of military disciplines”, announced the Ministry of Defense of this country allied with Moscow, via the territory of which Russia had launched its troops towards Kiev it a little over sixteen months ago.
What will happen to military equipment?
Did Wagner literally “give up”? On Wednesday July 12, the Russian army announced that it had received from the paramilitary group several thousand pieces of equipment for soldiers, as well as 2,500 tonnes of ammunition and 20,000 small arms, thanks to the agreement reached after its aborted rebellion in June. “The Russian Armed Forces, according to plan, are completing the receipt of weapons and military equipment from the units of the Wagner Group,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram. “All the equipment was delivered to the rear (of the front), where the repair units of the Russian armed forces carry out their maintenance,” the ministry added.
Wagner’s boss, Yevgueni Prigojine, had agreed to hand over the armaments of his men to the Russian regular troops after the abandonment of his rebellion at the end of June. According to the ministry, the Russian army received “more than 2,000 pieces of equipment and armaments” including T-90 tanks, Grad and Ouragan rocket systems, Pantsir air defense systems and howitzers.
What future for Wagner’s mercenaries in Africa?
In Russia as on the African continent, the future of the Prigozhin mercenaries remains unclear. The militia is present, proven and presumed, in more than ten countries, including Mali, the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso. According to information from Agence France Presse (AFP), informed by foreign sources, an unknown number of mercenaries from the Russian paramilitary group Wagner left the Central African Republic in recent days. Information firmly denied by the Touadera government, very dependent on Russian mercenaries. “There is a start in the air. They are reducing the airfoil. It is probably a mixture of Wagner’s current difficulties and the checkbook (of President Faustin-Archange) Touadéra which is limited”, indicated to the AFP a French source close to the file. “At least 250 of them have already returned to Russia,” a foreign observer told the newspaper. The world. They left on four separate flights. The first, with about sixty men, took off from Bangui-M’Poko airport on July 6 around 2 am. An Ilyushin 76 then made a double rotation to Russia. He left on July 6 with 45 mercenaries and, two days later, with 70 more. Finally, an Antonov, having landed on July 10, took off the next day with 75 men.
For the time being, the Russian government has not lifted the vagueness surrounding the future of the Wagner group’s activities in Africa since the failure of its June 24 mutiny. But its interventions abroad, in particular in Syria and in several African countries (Sudan, Central African Republic, Mali in particular) have so far not been publicly called into question. As soon as the end of the mutiny was announced, Bangui had even affirmed that Wagner’s activities would “continue”. “Russia has subcontracted with Wagner, if Russia no longer agrees with Wagner then it will send us a new contingent,” Fidèle Gouandjika, minister special adviser to President Touadera, told AFP. Asked by AFP, Fidèle Gouandjika, however, denied this information on Friday. “There is no departure of Russian troops from the Central African Republic to a foreign country, they are all there in the territory and what these media say are only false allegations,” he said.