Previously hypothetical, the probability of censorship by the Barnier government on the occasion of the probable adoption of the budget by 49.3 is increasingly high. Marine Le Pen, in a position of strength, suddenly increased tension this week.
With her contingent of 125 deputies, the RN leader has only one word to say and the motion of censure, promised and confirmed by the left, passes. And the government is failing.
Guest on RTL radio Wednesday morning, Marine Le Pen defined a red line for the finance bill: “The purchasing power of the French must not be amputated.” The formula is imprecise and embellished with a few references such as the famous tax on electricity which the government plans to increase to clean up the public accounts (return to a deficit of 5% of GDP in 2025).
The threat is taken seriously
Ears are wide open within the executive.President Macronalthough traveling in South America, cautiously says he wants to “ stability » when Michel Barnier, in front of the mayors of France gathered in Paris, assures that the French want “ serenity ». A counter-fire reflecting a form of vigilance.
Marine Le Pen has at least two reasons to censor: bogged down in the legal field since threatened with a sentence of ineligibility for the 2027 presidential election, she needs to return to the political game. She also has to deal with opinion surveys indicating that a majority of RN voters want censorship of the government.
Barnier forced to give pledges?
While it is easy to threaten, putting words into action at the fateful moment often proves much more difficult. Marine Le Pen imposes this dilemma on herself. Is the Barnier budget unacceptable enough to cause a regime crisis coupled with a financial crisis? Difficult to decide, especially since the party seeks to “ note “.
Michel Barnier also has limited room for maneuver in reality. He knows it, he only has a semblance of a coalition behind him. This budget shows more than perfectly the total absence of cohesion. The recent outing of the Minister of the Economy, the Macronist Antoine Armand, criticizing his own budget (because too many taxes) is proof of this. For the Prime Minister, giving in to the demands of the RN can add tension to the tension.
The light could come from a sleight of hand. Without granting any concessions to Le Pen on the budget, he could avoid Christmas censorship by promising to put on the agenda texts of laws demanded by the National Rally. After drug trafficking and immigration, proportional representation in legislative elections could resurface.