5.3 million tonnes of grain – this year’s harvest is expected to be as large, according to Lantmännen’s forecast.
According to Mikael Jeppsson, grain manager at the agricultural cooperative, it is slightly more than last year and in line with the average for the past five years.
He adds that the harvest potential is good in southern and western Sweden, while eastern Sweden has been hit by drought and Mälardalen by an unfavorable winter.
– But prices have risen sharply in the world after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when supply fell sharply, he says.
The war affects
Ukraine normally exports 50 million tons of grain, but after the war, production is estimated at 50-70 percent of normal harvest, according to Jeppsson.
It does not affect the flow to Sweden – 4.3 million tonnes are consumed annually, which means that Sweden is self-sufficient in grain and a fifth is exported.
– But it can be a limiting factor and increased risk then. Inputs used to produce grain, such as fertilizer, have risen sharply in price. This means that prices are rising here as well, he says.
Costs more
According to Lantmännen, the reason for the increased production is due to a large autumn sowing last year. At the same time, the autumn crops were met by a number of challenges, including persistent rainy weather last winter and game damage from moose, deer and wild boar.
A forecast of the harvest in the longer term is difficult to give, says Jeppsson, as it is largely due to weather and wind.
But since prices are at a record high, and have increased significantly even before the war in Ukraine, Lantmännen believes that it is more important than ever with a sustainable and long-term profitable production of Swedish grain and Swedish food.
Mikael Jeppsson believes that many will do everything they can to increase their production – but he also warns that the high prices of input goods can mean difficulties.
– The consequences are much greater if something goes wrong. It costs a lot more to produce a kilo of wheat compared to what it did a year ago.