Final maneuvers are taking place this Sunday, December 1 between the different political forces regarding the budget, on the eve of a resumption of debates in the Assembly which could prove very dangerous for the government of Michel Barnier. Without a majority, the Prime Minister could activate article 49.3 of the Constitution which allows approval without a vote, but he would expose his government to a motion of censure from Wednesday. Who could pass if the National Rally added its votes to those of the left.
The leading political group in the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen’s party is demanding new concessions from the government on the social security budget (PLFSS), which will be submitted Monday, December 2 for approval by the Assembly. “Censorship is not inevitable,” believes the leader of the RN. “It is enough for Michel Barnier to agree to negotiate” she warned in La Tribune Sunday.
Negotiations on the deindexation of pensions and medicines
After the government’s retreat on the electricity tax and reductions in charges on businesses, Marine Le Pen is putting two demands back on the table: firstly, that the government renounces the partial deindexation of pensions to inflation, the “absolute red line” for the RN according to MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy. “It’s a social contract between those who have contributed and the rest of society,” he said on the show.Political questions” on France Inter. Second requirement: that the executive reconsiders the delisting of certain medications.
“We don’t take anyone as a traitor […] We said: if we do not take into account what is unacceptable for the voters of the National Rally, we censor”, continued the multiple candidate for the Elysée. With only 47 deputies, the Prime Minister would, in the event of refusal of negotiations, itself “the decision to trigger censorship”, she adds “Discussions are currently continuing”, added this Sunday, on France 3, the Lepéniste deputy Thomas Ménage – which is what. Matignon did not confirm while calling on him to continue the discussion, the Macronist president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, indicated on Radio J that the government was to present the text approved last Wednesday.
Is the executive ready for new actions? The Minister of Budget, Laurent Saint-Martin, estimated in The Parisian that the text was the result of a compromise between senators and deputies, and that censoring it “would amount to censoring a democratic agreement”. In theory, it is still possible for the government to modify the text until the last moment to satisfy the opposition’s demands. But Laurent Saint-Martin already puts the “compromises” made by the executive with the various parliamentary groups since the start of the debates at “a little less than 10 billion euros”, while Michel Barnier’s objective is to achieve 60 billion savings. “The compromise is not blackmail: there can be no ultimatum. We have been responsible, everyone now to be responsible”, he insisted, warning against “the bill of censorship ” and the consequences of not having a budget.
The risk of a fall of the government
The social security financing bill (PLFSS), on which the Assembly will have to vote, is full of irritants for the oppositions, both on the left and the far right. In a letter sent again this Sunday to Michel Barnier, the Socialist Party is also indignant at not having been heard by the government on its budgetary proposals. “You will leave us no other choice by engaging 49.3 than to vote, with responsibility, for the censorship of your government,” write the first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faureand the heads of parliamentary groups, Patrick Kanner and Boris Vallaud.
If Michel Barnier decides not to use 49.3 and the text is rejected, he will leave for a new parliamentary shuttle, at the risk of getting bogged down. But if it passes in force, the left and the National Rally could unite their voices to bring about the fall of the executive. This would be a first since that of the government of Georges Pompidou in 1962.
Michel Barnier’s fragile coalition warns of the consequences of such a situation, in particular “a sudden and substantial increase in the costs of financing the French debt”, pointed out the Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, to the AFP. “At this crucial moment, beyond partisan divisions, in the general interest, our country needs a budget,” he argued, “and I call on everyone to their responsibilities.”