Ukraine’s counter-offensive against the Russian occupier is underway, and its success will determine the direction of the war in the future.
Summer is a crucial time for the progress of the counter-offensive, because in autumn the conditions for warfare weaken. For example, weather conditions and progress on terrain become difficult.
In this story, we tell you three options about what can happen in the counterattack during the summer. The summer can be said to be decisive for the continuation of the war.
A military professor at the National Defense University, lieutenant colonel, has been interviewed for the story Aki-Mauri from Huht and an expert on the Ukrainian war Emil Kastehelmää.
In the big picture, Wagner’s rebellion remained a short and small interlude. The withdrawal of 25,000 fighters from the front has little effect on the war.
– It may be that the Kremlin and Putin lead the war in a state of chaos, and they are not able to focus very well on what is happening on the front, but at least so far Ukraine has not been able to take advantage of the situation very well, says Aki-Mauri Huhtinen.
– It doesn’t matter much for the Russian troops on the front, how the oligarchs argue behind the scenes of the Kremlin, as long as the command structure and maintenance work, Emil Kastehelmi adds.
1. Ukraine succeeds in cutting the land connection to Crimea
Ukraine’s main goal seems to be to get close to the Sea of Azov to Mariupol or Melitopol and thereby cut Russia’s land connection to Crimea.
Succeeding in the goal would mean that it would be much more difficult for Russia to maintain its troops in Crimea than before. This would make it difficult for Russia to wage war in the future.
Ukrainian forces are now 70-80 kilometers from the coast. There are plenty of Russian fortresses ahead.
– You have to fight for every meter. But Ukraine has not yet deployed nearly all the troops it has reserved for this, says Aki-Mauri Huhtinen.
According to him, there is a high probability that Ukraine will succeed in its goal already during the summer.
– Although the dismantling of the Russian defense lines is progressing very slowly, there is a constant search for a place where the zipper of the attack could be torn open and we could reach the Sea of Azov. However, the Ukrainians have bombed hard and hit, for example, Tokmak, which is a logistics hub.
According to Huhtinen, Ukraine’s goal is to save the most striking force for the moment when the defense lines would be broken.
– They can be used to quickly and efficiently get behind the defense lines towards the Sea of Azov and block Russian troops, reserves and supply centers.
Ukraine war expert Emil Kastehelmi is more cautious in his assessment. If the goal were to succeed, it would be significant for the continuation of the war.
– Such a significant change could at best force Russia to reconsider the broader goals of the entire war, says Kastehelmi.
He wonders if the goal is realistic, considering how slow Ukraine’s progress in the region has been.
– The defense of the Russians seems to be really strong. Especially the direction of Melitopol seems to be fortified and mined. Russia has been able to prepare and dig in there for so long that it is a really bloody and difficult route for Ukraine.
2. Ukraine gets to occupy other strategically important areas
Another significant success for Ukraine would be if, during the summer, it is able to take over large areas of land in eastern Ukraine, for example in Luhansk.
– It would be a significant challenge for Russia if they lost a significant part of Luhansk or Donetsk. Then Russia’s goals of taking over the Donbass region got even worse, says Kastehelmi.
Ukraine can also try to seek smaller victories during the summer, which are primarily of political and symbolic importance for the continuation of the war. Recently, Ukraine has been making slow but determined progress in the Bahmut region.
– Wagner was precisely the group that captured Bahmut, and Russia now wants to neutralize Wagner’s importance. If Ukraine is able to take Bahmut, it is important for the propaganda war, even though it is not very important as a land area, says Aki-Mauri Huhtinen.
However, the big picture of the war might not be affected by simply recapturing smaller individual areas.
– Then Russia would not necessarily have to think about its new goals, Kastehelmi states.
In any case, the initiative now lies with Ukraine. Russia is on the defensive and trying to adapt to the situation, and does not seem to have the resources for a large-scale counter-operation.
3. Ukraine fails to advance, and the situation remains frozen
The worst situation for Ukraine would be that it would not be able to advance to strategically important places during the summer. Russia would succeed in repelling Ukraine’s counterattack in different directions. At the same time, Ukraine’s forces would wear out and its equipment would be destroyed.
– In many areas, neither party has made significant progress for months or even a year. If it gets stuck again for the next six months or more starting in the fall, the situation will be sad, says Kastehelmi.
However, according to experts, this option is not very likely. According to Ukrainian sources, Ukraine has already succeeded in recapturing some villages from Russia in recent weeks.
Although the summer counteroffensive will have a major impact on the continuation of the war, the war is not expected to end there – whatever the outcome in the fall.
After that, fighting can continue for months or even years. However, a protracted, expensive war is not in the wishes of any party.
– I believe that when enough chips have been put on the table, the search for some kind of political solution will start to take shape. But that’s probably a very long way to go, and there are a lot of variables. It is impossible to say when and in what form it will happen, says Kastehelmi.