this scenario that the Democrats did not see coming – L’Express

this scenario that the Democrats did not see coming –

Like Sylvester Stallone in Rocky III, President-elect Donald Trump – himself an organizer of boxing matches in the 1980s and 1990s – is now accomplishing what Hollywood screenwriters love most: an incredible comeback. Given up for political death after his defeat against Joe Biden four years ago, he triumphed at the polls by crushing Kamala Harris.

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On January 20, he will become the 47th president of the United States after having been the 45th (from 2016 to 2020.) In the history of the United States, this scenario has only arisen once, at the end of the 19th century, with the Democrat Grover Cleveland who was both the 22nd and 24th tenant of the White House. “The Democrats made a major error: they lacked imagination, notes historian Patrick Weil. After Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, they did not believe for a second that Donald Trump would be capable of getting up and get back into the political ring”, adds the author ofA madman in the White House (Odile Jacob). They thought he was knocked out. when he was simply stunned.

A man on the ropes

In November 2020, Donald Trump is a man on the ropes. While the end of his mandate was marked by a dismissal procedure (impeachment), here he is beaten at the polls by his Democratic opponent. Desperate, he tried, on January 2, to reverse the result of the election in the state of Georgia, by putting pressure on the organizer of the poll to “find 11,780 additional ballots”, which would allow him to win this key state and contest the election of Joe Biden. Four days later, still refusing to admit defeat, he incited his supporters to revolt.

During a meeting in Washington which takes place at the precise moment when the elected representatives of Congress must definitively validate the election of Joe Biden, he is at the origin of the insurrection of the Capitol, on January 6, 2021, which will earn him a second procedure – express –impeachment. As for the first time, he was acquitted by the senators the following month. A year and a half later, in November 2022, Donald Trump officially launches his electoral campaign two years ahead of the ballot.

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However, the candidate knows that he will have to answer to four charges. One is related to his interference in the vote count in Georgia. Another affair broke out in August 2022 when the FBI discovered secret documents at his home in Florida that the ex-president illegally took with him when leaving the White House. A third concerns the money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels to buy her silence before the 2016 presidential election. Finally, fourth case, Donald Trump is accused of having conspired against the American state by being at the origin of the Capitol insurrection. Added to this, in May 2023, was the conviction of Donald Trump by a jury in a New York civil court found responsible for sexual assault on E. Jean Carroll (the facts date back to 1996 and allegedly took place in the cabin fitting in the lingerie section of a luxury department store in New York).

A criminal ID photo that becomes an event

More is needed to discourage the political animal Trump. And yet August 24, 2023 seems to mark the beginning of the end of his political career… Summoned by the courts of the State of Georgia in the “electoral interference affair”, the former TV host and billionaire New Yorker surrenders to authorities at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia, resulting in a mugshot (mugshotin English) which is an event. Made public, it shows the former president in the unflattering situation of a simple litigant, the equal of a delinquent or a criminal of the caliber of Al Capone. The image would have destroyed any politician. Donald Trump turns this event to his advantage. The same day, the photo illustrates t-shirts that his supporters are snapping up. In April 2024, the trial of Stormy Daniels begins in New York, the actress to whom her lawyer gave her an envelope containing $130,000 in cash. On May 30, Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 counts by the court. Sentencing is scheduled for November 26.

The mugshot of former US President Donald Trump, released August 24, 2023

© / afp.com/-

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Indifferent to his legal troubles, Donald Trump throws himself headlong into his campaign. In June, he crushed Joe Biden in a debate where the current president lost control, which forced him to give up running on July 21 in favor of Kamala Harris. A week earlier, in a scene that no screenwriter would have dared to imagine, Donald Trump miraculously escaped an assassination attempt while he was at a meeting in Pennsylvania. Incidentally, the Democrats are thus deprived of the argument according to which the Trumpist camp has a monopoly on violence and candidate Kamala Harris, that of defending the rule of law and democracy.

Successful media stunts

On September 10, the two candidates faced each other during a debate that the Democrat seemed to have won, as the culmination of a succession of successful media stunts: a choice considered clever by her running mate Tim Walz, an acclaimed performance during the Democratic Party convention in mid-August, unification of the party behind the candidate and, therefore, a successful debate. But the success is deceptive. By asserting live that certain immigrants eat “cats, dogs and domestic animals”, Donald Trump causes a scandal but reminds us that he is not afraid of anything or any excess, which pleases his electoral base.

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In doing so, he occupies the center of the stage, monopolizes attention and deprives his opponent of media oxygen. Furthermore, it relies on simple campaign themes (immigration and purchasing power) while Kamala Harris struggles to formulate a clear and intelligible speech by the working class and the middle class. After overtaking Donald Trump in the polls and widening the gap, it is narrowing as the candidate, suffering from a lack of notoriety, struggles to assert herself. Donald Trump is campaigning and speaking to his electorate, including improvizing himself as a French fries waiter at McDonald’s and disguising himself as a garbage collector driving a garbage truck. During meetings that resemble high masses, he “puts on a show” and continues to demonstrate consummate showmanship. Which allowed him to make an incredible comeback on stage.

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