On June 9, the European Union will be decided on the composition of the European Parliament and the 720 MEPs that make it up. Between a probable surge of the far right across Europe, the large decline of liberals close to Emmanuel Macron, or the possible weakening of the two traditional forces of left and right, these European elections could well mark a turning point in the direction taken by the European Union.
But the day after the election results, a completely different battle will be launched, just as (or even more) important: that for the highest responsibilities in Brussels. Largely influenced by the future composition of the European Parliament without directly depending on it, four positions, nicknamed the “top jobs”, will be particularly monitored and coveted: the presidency of the European Commission, currently held by Ursula von der Leyen; the presidency of the European Parliament, currently occupied by Roberta Metsola, the presidency of the European Council, currently Charles Michel,; and finally the head of European diplomacy, today Josep Borrell.
Four key roles in the workings of a European Union that sometimes works very hard to follow. L’Express takes stock of the various negotiations which are already taking place behind the scenes in Brussels.
Presidency of the European Commission: Ursula von der Leyen in danger
This is surely the position with the most challenges, given its political importance. Occupied by Ursula von der Leyen since 2019, the presidency of the European Commission directs the executive branch of the EU, and weighs very heavily in the strategic directions taken in Brussels.
Its method of election is both simple… and complicated. Officially, the President of the Commission is appointed by the European Parliament, under the proposal of the European Council (i.e. the 27 heads of state of the EU). Since 2014, a system with a baroque name, the Spitzenkandidat (“head of the list”, in German), was put in place: before the European elections, each major political family of the EU (EPP, social democrats, liberals, etc.) presents a candidate. Logic then dictates that the presidency of the European Commission goes to the camp that came first in the vote.
In summary, the next President of the Commission will once again most certainly come from the European right, largely the favorite in the elections. But since nothing can be that simple in Brussels, after the last European election in 2019, a last minute surprise occurred. Thus, it was ultimately not the candidate initially nominated by the European right at the time, Manfred Weber, who was chosen to lead the Commission. But Ursula von der Leyen, notably due to strong lobbying from Emmanuel Macron himself.
This time, Ursula von der Leyen is indeed the official candidate of the European right to president of the Commission. But this does not mean that the former German minister has free rein to be reappointed for another five years, far from it. It is perhaps even the opposite of five years ago that could happen: designated before the European vote, von der Leyen could well be beaten to the post after June 9.
Because the former German minister has no shortage of enemies. The socialists, already, who criticize von der Leyen for his rapprochement with the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and a part of the European extreme right, which should emerge greatly strengthened from these elections. However, without the votes of the socialists in the European Parliament to validate her appointment, it seems very difficult to imagine the president of the commission being reappointed. But even within her camp, the outgoing president is not unanimous. In France in particular, the Republicans never miss an opportunity to criticize Ursula von der Leyen’s record, and have already announced that they will not support her candidacy.
Behind the scenes, even Emmanuel Macron, who had nevertheless largely contributed to his accession to this position in 2019, is considering other avenues. One, in particular, has gained weight in recent weeks: the former president of the ECB and former Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi. One of the Renaissance tenors in the European Parliament, Pascal Canfin, close to the French president, notably declared in an interview with the newspaper Politico It was only a week ago that “France and the entire presidential ecosystem would like Mario Draghi to play a role”. At the Commission, or elsewhere? In any case, the idea is posed.
At the European Commission, other key positions at stake
Who says new European Parliament, says new European Commission. And therefore, 27 new European commissioners, one per member country. Much more unknown than their president, they drive European policy on various key subjects, whether for the internal market (currently embodied by the Frenchman Thierry Breton), trade, digital technology or even the environment.
The designation of these members is the result of long negotiations in Brussels, and must respect partisan balances. But one position is particularly coveted: that of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs; to understand, the head of European diplomacy. Currently, the experienced Josep Borrell – of Spanish origin – holds this position.
If nothing technically prevents him from being reappointed to his post, very few European commissioners obtain a second mandate with the same portfolio. One name is circulating in particular to replace him: the current Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas. A fervent defender of Ukraine, at the head of a country under direct threat from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, she would embody a figure coming from Eastern Europe to lead the fight against the Kremlin.
In the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola towards reappointment
His election as head of the European Parliament in 2022 was the source of controversy, particularly because of his anti-abortion positions. Since then, the Maltese Roberta Metsola, from the European right, has made her place at the heart of European institutions. She is aiming for re-election, which in principle should not escape her.
This is notably due to a form of informal agreement between the European right and the social democrats. The two forces, traditionally the most widely represented in the European Parliament, redistribute the presidency of the European Parliament every five years. It therefore seems likely that Roberta Metsola will be re-elected this year, before giving up her place to a member of the social-democratic camp in 2026.
A Dane at the head of the European Council?
Last major European institution, and new negotiations for the presidency of the European Council, the organization which brings together the 27 heads of state of the EU. This position mainly serves as a mediator, while ensuring a role of international representation for the union.
A role that is far from simple when we know all the differences that can exist between different European countries on many subjects. A simple veto allows a single member state to block many decisions in the Council, particularly in matters of foreign policy. An example perfectly illustrated by the long blockage, by Viktor Orban’s Hungary, of EU aid to Ukraine, which took several weeks to be lifted.
Since 2019, Charles Michel has held this position, appointed by the EU heads of state and renewed every two and a half years. But with already two mandates, the former Belgian Prime Minister cannot be reappointed, according to European rules. Regarding his succession, little information has circulated so far. One name nevertheless comes up more often than the others: the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen. Coming from the socialist camp, particularly involved in the Ukrainian issue but also holding a very firm line on immigration in her country, this could act as an effective middle ground between the different political sensitivities of European governments.