BRUSSELS Outgoing Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte is considered a viable candidate for the next Secretary General of NATO.
In the background discussions in Brussels, it is estimated that Rutte, who has been prime minister since 2010, is a strong candidate for secretary general Jens Stoltenberg successor. Stoltenberg’s term as NATO leader ends at the end of September.
The liberal politician Rutte, on the other hand, has announced that he will leave the position of prime minister after the Dutch parliamentary elections held in November. After the election, Rutte will lead the Ministry of Supply until a new government is formed in the Netherlands.
Rutte announced at the end of October in a radio interview that he finds the position of NATO Secretary General “very interesting”. According to a diplomatic source commenting anonymously, Rutte’s candidacy has broad support in NATO.
The most suitable, not the most qualified, is chosen as leader
Rutte’s strengths are his long experience as a leader, good relations with the United States and the decision to increase the Dutch defense budget.
The Netherlands has also taken the initiative in the so-called fighter coalition, which is to supply Ukraine with the modern fighter jets it desperately needs.
More important than personal qualities is the political suitability of the secretary-general candidate for the position, according to an expert from the German Marshall Foundation based in Brussels Bruno Leté To .
Therefore, the most suitable rather than the most qualified candidate is chosen as the Secretary General of NATO.
– The candidate must be liked by all members of the defense union, Lété sums up.
Estonian Kallas also in the top ropes
As the second candidate to be considered, Lété puts forward the Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallasen. Like Mark Rutte, Kallas has expressed his interest in the position of Secretary General.
According to Lété, Kallas would be a suitable candidate, especially for the countries of Eastern Central Europe, which feel that it is time for the newer member states of NATO to have their own representative in the leadership of NATO.
Many are also of the opinion that it would be high time for the defense union to have its first female general secretary.
However, there is one significant obstacle to the choice of Kallas.
– The problem of many Central and Eastern European candidates is their hawkish attitude towards Russia. At the same time, there are countries in NATO such as Germany, France and partly also the United States, which hope for a more moderate candidate for the leadership of NATO, says expert Lété.
He reminds that, despite its support for Ukraine, NATO is not a party to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Among female decision-makers, Lété also singles out the president of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyenwhose interest in the task was already speculated before the summer summit in Vilnius.
At that time, the NATO countries ended up extending Jens Stoltenberg’s term by a year.
– In connection with the meeting in Vilnius, there were estimates that Stoltenberg would have been given an extension so that von der Leyen would have time to finish his term at the head of the Commission, Lété reflects.
However, he thinks it is most likely that von der Leyen will seek another term at the head of the EU Commission instead of NATO.
Appointment before the Washington Summit
Norway’s Jens Stoltenberg’s successor was discussed even before the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
However, no consensus was found on the issue, as a result of which the Stoltenberg process was extended by a year.
Empiminen in the selection of the general secretary is not to the advantage of the defense union, Lété estimates.
– If the situation were to repeat itself in 2024, and the member states could not find an agreement on the next secretary general, this would signal that NATO has internal problems.
The transfer of the decision to next year means that the choice of NATO’s Secretary General as well as the EU’s future high-level appointments are on the table of the European leaders.
In the non-EU NATO countries, according to ‘s information, it is hoped that the general secretary issue would be resolved before new leaders are appointed in the EU after the European elections in June.
Bruno Lété emphasizes that the pre-favorite position is not a guarantee of success when electing the general secretary. There may also be candidates on the table whose names have not yet been made public.
– The final list of candidates will probably be ready in March. However, someone else may be elected at the summit in July, says Lété.
In principle, the selection of the Secretary General can also be extended beyond the summit, although the expectation is that the decision will be made by the time of the summit.
Counterforce to Trump?
The discussions in Brussels also highlight concerns about the direction of the United States after the presidential elections in November.
Having strongly questioned NATO during his previous presidency Donald Trump’s a return would likely revolutionize transatlantic relations.
According to Lété, it is not excluded that the choice of the secretary general will also become a game piece in the inflamed domestic politics of the United States. The lack of unity is also a broader challenge for the defense union.
– Member countries’ views on threat images and security policy priorities are increasingly diverging. That’s why a person who unites the defense union is needed as general secretary.
According to Lété, the lack of unity is a bigger challenge than Russia, China or terrorism.
– If unity disappears, this is the end of NATO.
In addition to Mark Rutte and Kaja Kallas, the foreign minister of Latvia has also registered for the general secretary race Krišjānis Kariņš.
According to Kariņš the defense alliance needs a general secretary who has a clear vision of Russia and who is able to act as a bridge builder between the allies.
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