Final speeches. Final crowd baths. The finish line has never been closer. A few days before the American presidential election, the polls are piling up without any real winner emerging. But according to statistical modeling of The EconomistKamala Harris’ chances of victory continue to increase. With an increase of six points, the Democratic candidate would now have a slight lead over Donald Trump, winning 270 and 268 voters respectively.
The reason for this sudden turnaround: the addition of 65 new polls to the British weekly’s forecasts. “Because the race is very close, even small changes in vote estimates can cause large shifts in the odds of victory,” writes The Economist.
“We’ll know when it’s time to count.”
Since mid-October, the candidates have been neck and neck. And the numerous surveys will not say the opposite. According to FiveThirtyEightan aggregator of voting intentions, as of October 31, candidate Kamala Harris is in the lead with 48% of the votes against 46.7% for her Republican rival. Same conclusion for the New York Times. According to estimates from the American daily, the Democrat would become the next president of the United States on November 5 with 49% of the votes, compared to 48% for Donald Trump. Despite Kamala Harris’ slight lead in the national polls, the election promises to be particularly close.
Consequently, according to Republican pollster Whit Ayres, interviewed this week by L’Express, with such estimates, it is impossible to guess the winner with certainty. “When we predict such a close election, no one is a favorite. Of course, the polls may again underestimate the vote for Donald Trump, but we will only know that at the time of the count, not before,” explains -he. In 2016 and 2020, almost all of the averages of the polls carried out at the level of each state had underestimated the support of voters given to the Republican candidate. An error that the Democratic camp does not want to see repeated.
Towards equality?
Potential voters – those registered on the electoral roll and having indicated their firm intention to vote on November 5 – could work in favor of Kamala Harris. According to a survey by Washington Postthey would support the Democrat at 47%, compared to 46% for the Republican. But registered voters, as a whole, would lean more towards Donald Trump, who would win 47% of the votes, against 45% for Kamala Harris. The poll’s margin of error being 3.7 points, one of the two candidates could hold a decisive lead thanks to these voters.
In view of recent polls, the final days of the campaign should therefore unfold in the same way as the last three months: many twists and turns, but no decisive advance. In the event of a perfect tie, the 12th Amendment to the United States Constitution provides that the House of Representatives decides between the candidates. As the institution has a Republican majority, such a scenario would likely work in the billionaire’s favor.