The number of unemployed will continue to rise during 2024 to 6.6 percent, Arbetsförmedlingen believes. It will be toughest in southern Sweden and above all in the metropolitan areas. In the north, however, it looks brighter.
– The labor market in northern Sweden is strongly linked to the large, green investments that are carried out in the region, writes Arbetsförmedlingen’s head of forecasting, Lars Lindvall, in a press release.
Electricity prices
Electricity prices can change quickly and are always difficult to predict. But there are factors to keep an eye on. As usual, colder weather increases the demand for electricity and drives up the price. Well-filled water reservoirs contribute to lower prices, while drier winter weather increases the risk of higher electricity prices. Since the electricity market in Europe is connected, it also matters how it looks on the continent. Ahead of winter, the natural gas storages in Germany have been well filled, a good sign, but should it get very cold, they still risk emptying.
Fuel prices
Those who longed for lower petrol and diesel prices could celebrate at the turn of the year that the tax on these fuels was then substantially reduced at the same time as the reduction obligation was reduced. Christian Kopfer, who is a commodity analyst at Handelsbanken, believes, however, that in the long run the reduction will be eaten up by rising crude oil prices.
– The world as a whole consumes more and more oil, says Christian Kopfer.
But he believes that it may take time before increased demand takes out the price reduction for fuel.
– The reduction, above all on diesel, is so noticeable that it will take quite a while before the large reduction is eaten up. But I think it will come gradually.
Interest rates and inflation
Finally, we come to perhaps the most debated points. With regard to both interest rates and prices, the Norwegian Institute of Economic Forecasting’s head of forecasting sees the light at the end of the tunnel.
– After the summer around then comes the beginning of the turnaround, says Ylva Hedén Westerdahl.
In the video, she talks about factors that can make the wallet feel a little thicker this year.