Published: Less than 10 min ago
The forecast indicates that it will be really sweaty in Sweden in June, July and August.
With a heat equal to the record summer of 2018.
– My tip is to buy fans and start mentally preparing now, says Madeleine Westin, meteorologist at TV4.
Summer is just around the corner – and according to the long-term forecasts, it can be a really hot one.
– As it looks now, this year we will have a summer similar to the summer of 2018, says Madeleine Westin, meteorologist and head of TV4’s weather editorial.
The summer weeks of 2018 made themselves known for their boiling hot days and brought severe drought, wildfires, irrigation bans, crop failure and a national fan shortage.
The return of extreme weather
Now five years later, the extreme weather may return.
Madeleine Westin has looked at the European long-term forecast made by the weather service ECMWF and the American long-term forecast.
Both point in the same direction.
– It looks like there could be a real heat wave this year. My tip is to buy fans and start mentally preparing already now, says Madeleine Westin, meteorologist and head of TV4’s weather editorial.
The meteorologist highlights, however, that there is always a great deal of uncertainty in long-term forecasts – and that the weather may change.
“Super El Niño”
According to forecasts, temperatures are expected to rise above normal as early as June.
– Then we can get days with over 25 degrees. Then it looks like the temperatures will continue to rise towards 30 degrees and even above during the summer. According to the forecasts, it will be warmest at the end of July and beginning of August, says Madeleine Westin.
She describes how a high pressure from the west is expected to spread over Scandinavia, starting in the western parts.
And that it is often the large-scale weather phenomena that control the weather development.
Right now we are in an intermediate period between the weather phenomena La Niña and El Niño, which will affect the weather here at home.
Temperature anomalies during El Niño 1997. Graphic from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
– During the extreme summer of 2018, we were, like now, in a transition phase from La Niña to El Niño. That could lead to an equally hot summer.
She continues:
– As a meteorologist, I can make a qualified assessment that the risk is very high for a hot summer, when much agrees with 2018. In addition, there is talk that a super El Niño may occur in the long run.
According to the forecast, a high-pressure blockage can be created, causing very warm and dry air to flow in over Scandinavia.
This, in turn, can also mean that rain does not occur. The low pressure and rainy areas are expected to affect southern Europe instead.
Madeleine Westin mentions that it could be quite troublesome weather in parts of the Mediterranean region such as southern Italy, Montenegro and southern France – with much more rain than normal.
Risk of forest fires and water shortages
Just like the summer of 2018, the hot weather is expected to bring severe drought, wild forest fires, irrigation bans in parts of the country and problems with the harvests.
– There are several things you can do now before the weather arrives. For example, it may be time to save your water if you own your own well, but also regular water.
She states that groundwater levels are very good right now, but that can change quickly when the toka hits.
Madeleine Westins also points out, if the heat strikes, the importance of protecting yourself and loved ones. Older and young children are often the most vulnerable in hot weather.
She says the best tips for dealing with the heat are to seek shade and cool down, use sunscreen, drink plenty of water and leave the fan running.
– This weather can absolutely cause problems for the Swedes. At the same time, we are probably more prepared for a hot summer this year compared to 2018. We have already done this once, says Madeleine Westin.