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The Assad regime is gone and the people are celebrating in the streets – but soon new challenges await Syria.
The country’s future is now in the hands of neighboring countries and great powers.
– Now it will be a toss-up as to who takes the initiative, says Middle East expert Bitte Hammargren.
The people of Syria are waking up to a new reality after the sudden fall of the Assad regime, after decades of oppression.
– It is a regime that has ruled with the help of a terrible repression for 50 years, and now it is gone. No one had expected this rapid collapse of the regime, says Bitte Hammargren.
That it could happen is a consequence of several factors, she believes. Like Syria’s allies Iran and Hezbollah are both weakened right now, and Russia has been busy in Ukraine.
– In addition, I think that Russia has seen the Assad regime as rotten fruit.
“We are in a revolutionary situation”
In the streets of Syria, people rejoice that the dictatorship is gone. But what will come after Assad is more unclear.
– We are in the middle of a revolutionary situation, says Bitte Hammargren.
To talk about opportunities for democracy and peace in Syria is therefore far too early, she believes.
– We are not there. Imagine that a regime that ruled the country with an iron fist suddenly collapses after all these years. Today is euphoria, but there may be a hangover.
The focus in the near future is instead on keeping the country together as a cohesive state and getting basic social functions up and running, as well as getting a transitional government with new faces that the world can talk to.
– To make sure that there are no lootings, spontaneous acts of revenge and things like that – but that has already started to happen, I hear from Syrians. There is also so much bad blood between different factions.
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full screen People have celebrated Assad’s fall in several parts of the world. Here in Lebanon. Photo: Hassan Ammar / AP
Rebels and loyalists in unholy alliance
The people of Syria want democracy, but the road to get there is long, says Bitte Hammargren.
– In order to hold elections, political parties must be able to develop. Now it’s just a matter of making sure the transition is arranged. For example, we do not know to what extent the civil protest movement can gain influence when the power is currently with those who have weapons.
The prime minister has said he wants to work with the jihadist rebels of HTSinfocloseHTSHayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, is an Islamist rebel group in Syria that is leading the current uprising against the Assad regime. through a transitional government, but how this will happen in practice is unclear.
– The rebels are controlled by a terrorist group. And they therefore need to bring in credible people from the opposition who can represent a transitional government, says Bitte Hammargren.
Internationally, there are hopes that the UN-led peace process in the country, which was previously paralyzed by the Assad regime, will now be able to get new life.
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fullscreenBitte Hammargren, Middle East expert and senior employee at the Institute for Foreign Policy. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT
Neighboring countries will act
At the same time, Bitte Hammargren is convinced that neighboring countries and major powers with their own interests will try to influence the development.
– Now it will be a tussle over who takes the initiative. Powerful neighboring countries are already acting based on their interests. For example, Turkey is launching strikes against the Kurdish-led self-government in northeastern Syria, with the help of its Syrian loyalist troops in the SNA, she says.
According to Bitte Hammargren, the fall of the regime is a disaster for Iran, as it could mean cutting off their link to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Countries like Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan are all affected in different ways.
– It’s a tsunami that hits the neighboring countries with different effects, says Bitte Hammargren.
Both Iran and Hezbollah will act, in order not to release their links to Syria, she believes.
– But they face significant difficulties. As an example, we see how the Iranian embassy in Damascus has been stormed today.
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full screen Smoke rises after rebels take control of Damascus. Photo: Ghaith Alsayed / AP
Support from the US more uncertain with Trump
The US has long sought to prevent Iran’s influence in Syria, and has supported the Kurdish SDF group in the country to do so. With a new president in the White House, however, it is unclear what the American line will look like.
– We don’t know how Trump will act. He says he doesn’t want to deal with Syria, but he will have to.
In short, it is a complex composition of countries and interests that influence future development.
– And now this will be a power shift that affects the entire region.
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full screen The rebels attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Photo: Hussein Malla / AP
Increased migration flows are expected
A large part of Syria’s population are refugees, and many millions of Syrians live today in neighboring countries and in Europe. The fall of the Assad regime will lead to even more migration, Bitte Hammargren believes.
– We can expect that there will be movements both out and in. Turkey, for example, has a huge interest in a large part of the nearly four million refugees being able to return to Syria.
– I also know Syrians in Sweden who are on their toes and waiting to return. But there are also those who do not dare, because they fear continued chaos.
That Europe will see new, large flows of refugees from Syria is not something she rules out.
– That risk does exist, but everything depends on how the transition phase turns out.
According to Bitte Hammargren, the coming days and weeks will be decisive in shaping the country’s future, with potentially large consequences for the entire Middle East.
– We will get to see how the various forces form. Today, millions of Syrians are celebrating inside and outside the country, but the risk is that a hangover awaits for many, while others fear revenge.