JONAS BJÖRCK: This is what an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah could look like
Both Israel and Hezbollah are war-weary and need a ceasefire.
But it is still unclear if it will actually be removed – and what it would look like in that case, writes TV4 Nyhetern’s foreign reporter Jonas Björck.
What suggests there will be a truce?
There has been more and more information in the past week that the parties are close to an agreement. It is primarily the American television channel CNN that claims that anonymous Israeli government officials say that the Israeli government’s security cabinet will hold a meeting on the matter tomorrow, Tuesday.
Diplomats from the United States and the Lebanese government have been intermediaries in the negotiations between Hezbollah and the Israeli government for several weeks. If there is a yes from the Israeli leadership, it remains to be seen whether those who rule Hezbollah can consider agreeing to a truce.
A truce which in that case would apply for sixty days to begin with. But it is incredibly difficult to say whether this will really become a reality.
Why is there a need for a truce right now?
After all, Israel has struck out and killed large parts of Hezbollah’s leadership during the autumn. The most palpable loss for the Shiite Muslim group is, of course, the killing of its supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike. At the same time, the Israeli airstrikes against the capital Beirut and targets in southern Lebanon are ongoing. At least 3,000 have so far been killed in those attacks.
Israel is also exposed several times a week to Hezbollah’s shelling in the form of robots and drones. Tens of thousands of civilian Israelis have been evacuated from their homes in northern Israel for almost a year now. Both sides are of course aware of the ongoing war and should reasonably need to establish a truce in the first place.
What could a truce look like? Will there be an end to the fighting?
A truce could mean Israel withdrawing from southern Lebanon and pledging to end its airstrikes. Hezbollah would promise to withdraw to the north of the Litani River, which is about three miles from the border between Israel and Lebanon.
Then it is said that security in the disputed area must be guaranteed by the regular Lebanese army with the support of the UN peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, which has been in place since 1978. If that were to lead to a temporary end to the war, it is of course extremely difficult to answer considering how tense the situation is in the region.