“This is likely to change Russia’s calculations”

When Finland and Sweden join NATO, they will make a significant contribution to the military equipment around the Baltic Sea. Finland’s strength lies in the ground forces and especially in the number of crew and field artillery. Sweden, for its part, is strengthening the alliance, in particular with its intelligence capabilities, submarines and air force.

According to experts interviewed by News, Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership will significantly change the strategic situation in the Baltic Sea.

– Now Russia knows for sure that the equipment and capabilities of Sweden and Finland are at the disposal of the alliance and this will probably change Russia’s calculations. And perhaps it increases the deterrent effect, says a researcher at the RAND think tank focused on U.S. security policy Gene Germanovich.

According to Germanovich, this is important because conflicts with Russia can change shape and spread quickly elsewhere. That is why it is important to show common strength in the Baltic Sea.

On the other hand, Russia can always respond to NATO’s strengthening in the Baltic Sea, points out a professor of strategy at the National Defense College. Tommi Koivula.

“Only the St. Petersburg region and Kaliningrad, which Russia is striving to fortify and use as a kind of storage place for strategic deterrence, are excluded from the alliance,” Koivula reflects.

When talking about the added value brought by Finland and Sweden, the experts will be the first to highlight the Nordic skies. In the military alliance, Finland and Sweden, together with Norway, will instantly launch 200 fighter jets, which will be even more modern and capable in the future.

Sweden relies on domestic JAS Gripens, but the variety of equipment can even be a strategic advantage, says Koivula.

– Fighter equipment can be moved quickly from one country to another, and the opponent can’t really know what to face.

Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership will also significantly increase the Alliance’s infantry population. The Finnish Army Reserve in particular will make a significant contribution to NATO forces.

According to Tommi Koivula, Professor of Strategy at the National Defense College, Finland represents the “Eastern European school” when comparing the military, where the performance and crew of the ground forces play an important role.

– “Boots on the ground,” as the Yankees say. The war in Ukraine has shown that it still matters, Koivula says.

In the Baltic Sea region, Finland’s wartime reserve of almost 240,000 people is on par with Germany’s population, which is 15 times larger. IISS reduces the size of Finland’s reserves to 240,000, ending with 280,000.

Swedish troops seeking NATO membership with us are almost a fraction of this in terms of headline. According to Tommi Koivula, however, the country is wrestling in a heavier series.

In addition to existing equipment, Sweden’s strength lies in its defense industry: Bofors, Kockums and Saab supply weapons systems and military equipment almost anywhere in the world. In this matter, Sweden is quite self-sufficient, while Finland relies heavily on Western imports.

– Sweden has a capacity that is not visible in the numbers but is a bit below the surface, Koivula points out.

Finland and Sweden also bring personal expertise and knowledge of the operating environment to NATO. Both have intelligence skills, but Koivula thinks we are clearly on the sidelines.

– Of course, thanks to the location, Finland in particular will have better opportunities for the federation. Sweden is not a small player either, but the general perception is that Finland and Sweden are still benefiting the most. NATO, and the US in particular, has an overwhelming capacity to monitor what is happening.

However, Gene Germanovich, a researcher at the RAND incubator, would not underestimate Finland’s and Sweden’s efforts in intelligence and monitoring the operating environment.

– Thanks to its location, Finland is able to quickly share information with Brussels to help with daily planning. I think this is a very important contribution and I know the Allies will value this day-to-day expertise, Germanovich says.

The skills of Finland and Sweden in operating in extreme conditions, icebreaking and demining are also welcome, Germanovich lists.

In addition to these, the American researcher highlights the comprehensive defense of both countries, which means cooperation between civilian and defense forces.

– Both societies are highly resilient. NATO has a lesson to learn from this.

As members of the Defense Alliance, Finland and Sweden have the opportunity to turn NATO’s attention more sharply to the Baltic Sea. At the same time, countries will be better able to participate in defense planning in the Baltic Sea region.

– NATO’s role is determined by the interests of member countries. We hope to bring more Northern Dimension to NATO, says researcher at the Swedish National Defense College Ilmari Käihkö.

– Article 4 of NATO allows for the request of assistance from member countries. For example, you can ask if you can increase your presence in this area. This has been used by the Baltic countries and Poland and Turkey, says Tommi Koivula, professor of strategy.

Käihkö points out that with the Russian attack, however, the Northern Dimension may become the center of the defense alliance anyway. The war in Ukraine has, in a way, brought NATO back to its roots.

– One day, however, this war will end and then the interests of the member states will change. Our own interests are starting to be emphasized more, whatever they are, Käihkö says.

Käihkö, for example, raises France, for which Russia has not been the main focus. In contrast, French interests and forces have traditionally been more concentrated in Central and North Africa.

– Again, these are interests that are not necessarily of interest to Finland, he adds.

This is also evident in the Baltic Sea: with the exception of Denmark, all countries have increased their defense spending. The largest growth has been in Finland, Estonia and Poland.

However, Professor of Strategy Tommi Koivula points out that the numbers of tanks, cannons and fighter jets tell only one half of the military capabilities of different countries.

– Many war theorists have stated that only the real situation tells how it is. The Russian war in Ukraine has shown that there can be a lot of tanks in terms of numbers, but it is a very different matter how they are brought to the battlefield and considered operational there.

According to Koivula, the best way to maintain an understanding of operational capability is to practice and engage in defense cooperation.

– Crisis management and peacekeeping missions also provide an indication of how to cope in a real situation. War is a riddle and it always surprises.

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