Through data, we have analyzed the gaming phenomena of the World Cup, the teams’ ways of playing, and analyzed the players and the gameplay. Croatia’s success is a good example that it is difficult to explain their success with traditional metrics through data. Always when interpreting data, it is good to remember that there is much more to the game. You have to be able to interpret it using the data as a help – not by building your analysis of the game guided by the data.
How can we explain Croatia’s success?
– Figuring this out is not an easy task. Namely, by looking at, for example, the number of goals created and conceded, it can be seen that the difference has not been a particularly positive head coach by Zlatko Dalić in the era. You could replace this with any metric that reflects the performance of the game, and the end result would be that Croatia is a very good team, Miika Nuutinen start.
When studying the data, it is strikingly difficult to find the thing where Croatia stands out in particular. Correspondingly, the team is also not particularly weak in any area within the framework of the data. In any case, it is an impressive performance that Croatia, with a population of around four million, is already playing in the semi-finals of the World Cup for the second time in a row.
– This is a good indication that not everything that happens in football can be explained with numbers. For example, the strong culture of winning and the never-give-up mentality emanating from Croatia are somewhere beyond the reach of match data.
– And on the other hand, to be a good tournament team, you don’t even necessarily have to win games. Croatia seems to turn the games into marathons that suit their own pace, which they eventually win by points.
How does Croatia define the rhythm of the game?
Croatia doesn’t celebrate with its power and it might be the underdog going into several matches. The player material can be compared to the very top of the world at certain venues, but not nearly all. However, Croatia’s match plan is not based solely on the team’s ballless phase.
Croatia is a master at neutralizing even the toughest opponents with Ball Control. In a way, the team defends with the ball at its feet. It suppresses the opponent’s pressure with its own ball movement by bringing a large number of players into the opening phase of the game. In these situations, the biggest goal is not to advance, but to control the ball and determine the rhythm by preventing the opponent’s actions with the ball.
The Brazil match was a model example of this, when Brazil had to be in the discomfort zone without the ball for long periods of time and Croatia had long periods of ball control.
In this, the Croatian midfield and their role plays a key role, where the goal is not to advance from the middle lanes of the field, but to stay on the ball and force the opponent to press. After that, the advances are directed to the wing areas, where Croatia tries to create superiority with the help of a full-back and a wing player. For example, in the Brazil match, more than 80 percent of Croatia’s advances were focused on the wing areas.
– The heart of the team is Marcelo Brozovic, Mateo Kovacic and Luka Modric formed by a midfield that is able to take its own moments from game to game. As the graphic shows, everyone’s range is exceptionally wide. The areas are determined based on the area in which most of the player’s actions with the ball take place.
– The trio play in the same rhythm and read each other’s moves seamlessly. Dalic has rewarded it with very free hands in the ball phase.
Marcelo Brozovic balances the team’s playing in both directions. The midfielder operating in the 6 position has made World Cup history in the number of runs. In the match against Japan, the midfielder covered 16.63 kilometers. The previous record was also found in Brozovic’s name. This speaks volumes for the amount of work he puts into participating in different phases of the game.
Brozovic’s role is especially important in the team’s off-ball phase, where he protects the defensive line and seeks a large number of possessions. In the ball phase, he is excellent at taking care of the ball by offering support to his teammates and on the other hand by almost always positioning himself optimally. Brozovic does not contribute to the game in the central area per se, but participates strongly in moving the ball in the width direction.
Modric and Kovacic, on the other hand, work in the midfield in front of Brozovic, but often drop down to the playmaking area to control the ball and, on the other hand, also to move the game forward from the central area. Whereas Brozovic balances the attack more and positions himself protecting the defensive line, Modric and Kovacic are often also finishing attacks. As the graphic shows, Modric in particular is not affected by age yet, if you look at his range of motion, which is huge.
– The Croatian midfield also recognizes with high quality what plays are needed – they know how to drop into the playmaking area in a timely manner or create superiority on the wing. Their action also allows you to slow down the rhythm by moving the ball to safe areas.
What is clear is that Croatia has found its own way to play and succeed. The team is an excellent example of the fact that simply interpreting the data usually does not get you very far. It is good to remember that the most significant things in football are not always the easiest to measure.
The men’s World Cup moves to the semi-finals. Croatia and Argentina are aiming for the first place in the World Cup final on Tuesday. will broadcast the match live on TV2 and Areena, the studio broadcast of the match starts at 20:05.