In the coming weeks, Ukraine will launch a series of missile strikes deep into Russia. This is what the intelligence analyst estimates Pasi Paroinen from the Black Bird Group, which follows the open source war.
These would be ATACMS missiles with a range of about 300 kilometers, for which Ukraine has finally received permission from the United States, according to media reports.
Formerly President Joe Biden the administration allowed the use of missiles only within Ukraine’s borders.
Ukraine has more than 200 good targets
Ukraine’s targets are likely to be the gathering places and airports in the Kursk and Rostov regions.
The research institute ISW estimated in September that more than 200 valuable military targets will be within Ukraine’s reach when it receives permission to use longer-range missiles in Russia.
According to Paroinen, Ukraine’s sights probably include Russian helipads and troop command, training and gathering places.
– Air bases are also particularly delicious targets for such weapon systems, says Paroinen.
The most long-term effects are from strikes that destroy hard-to-replace equipment, such as helicopters or airplanes.
According to Paroinen, important sites are especially in the Kursk region in the north and the Rostov region in the east.
In Kursk, Russia is trying to take back territories on the border from Ukraine. The direction of Rostov, on the other hand, is an important support area for the Eastern Front.
Ukraine could also strike with missiles at the gathering places of North Korean forces. According to US data, Russia has brought more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers into the battles, most of them in the direction of Kursk.
– That would send a message to North Korea that welcome here, Paroinen says.
One missile sows destruction in a radius of hundreds of meters
ATACMS missiles work best against helicopters, vehicles and soldiers.
The ATACMS missile carries either one two-hundred-kilogram explosive charge or hundreds of daughter warheads that spread hundreds of meters from the point of impact.
Ukraine has used especially the latter type.
– They are especially good against wide and weakly defended goals. We are talking about soft targets, for example unarmoured vehicles, helicopters and crew, Paroinen says.
Up until now, Ukraine has already been able to strike much deeper into Russia with drones.
However, drones usually only carry a smaller explosive charge, so the effect is not as extensive as with missiles.
Russia can pull its fleet farther to safety
Russia has learned to repel missiles better than before and can move targets elsewhere.
– If there is a protected target, then you have to shoot many missiles to get one to go through, says Paroinen.
This time, Ukraine also does not have the advantage of surprise. The US authorities leaked the information about the permission to use the missiles before Ukraine could strike on Russian soil.
– It is very unfortunate, because it gives the Russians time to change their own actions, Paroinen says.
Russia can now move its equipment further from the border or distribute operations to smaller units.
According to Paroinen, Ukraine should carry out the attacks as quickly as possible, before Russia has time to protect itself from missiles.
After this, the number of attacks will decrease, because Ukraine has probably only received a few dozen missiles.
Precisely because of the small number of missiles, Paroinen does not believe that future missile strikes will change the course of the war very significantly.
– It’s not about any miracle weapons, Paroinen tells .
Trump can also revoke the authorization
If Trump decided to cancel the permission to use missiles in Russia, Ukraine would be in trouble.
Ukraine received longer-range ATACMS missiles already at the beginning of the year. However, the decision to allow their use in Russia also took months.
So far it is not known what the future president of the United States Donald Trump thinks about the use of American missiles in Russia.
Some of Trump’s allies have considered the decision dangerous, while others have said it came too late.
According to Paroinen, Ukraine cannot use ATACMS missiles independently, but the United States supports both the planning and execution of the attacks. In addition, US intelligence helps in finding targets.
Sources: AFP, Reuters, AP