Why is Iran acting like this?
Iran refers to a court order but has not given any further explanation. The hijacking was very spectacular, with masked men in black taking over the ship and cutting off all communications. The ship is now said to be on its way to Iran. But worth knowing is that this is not the first time. After President Trump withdrew from the deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program in 2018, Iran has seized ships on several occasions and has also been accused of attacking shipping at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. The US, in turn, has also seized Iranian oil tankers suspected of violating sanctions against Iran’s oil exports.
The same ship that has now been hijacked under the name St Nikolas has previously, under the name Suez Rajan, been at the center of a highly publicized dispute in which the US Department of Justice seized 1 million barrels of Iranian oil that was then on board the ship.
How can the US respond?
The hijacking comes at a very sensitive time as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have for weeks fired drones and missiles at civilian shipping in the area in protest against Israel’s war in Gaza. This poses a serious threat to international trade and several shipping companies have already decided to avoid the Red Sea and instead let their ships take the entire route around Africa. The UN Security Council yesterday condemned the attacks, which have led to the US Navy already patrolling the area. Both the United States and Britain have warned of consequences if the attacks continue. But the US has yet to comment on this hijacking.
What significance can this have for the conflict in the Middle East?
Since the war in Gaza began, the entire Middle East has been a powder keg and the big concern has been that Iran, which sponsors both Hamas and Hezbollah, will enter the conflict. That the Iranian state now chooses to hijack an American-owned ship is a provocation that creates great concern. What now happens to the ship and its crew will be decisive for the development. The US will have to respond but is likely initially trying to deal with it as a continuation of the ongoing dispute over oil tankers in the area.
That the US would respond in this situation with a military retaliation directly aimed at Iran is unlikely because it would trigger the very big regional war that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is feverishly trying to avoid on his tour of the Middle East. But there is an obvious risk that this means escalation.