One of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
It was not unexpected. Bibi and Trump are described as close friends, which became clear during Trump’s last turn in the White House.
In one of every Israeli election during that period, the election posters of Netanyahu were emblazoned side by side with Trump, as if they went to the polls together. In the same spirit of friendship, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel and pushed for the so-called Abraham Accords in which Israel normalized relations with several countries in the region.
Trump also gained support among Arab leaders after coming down hard on Iran. Not least the assassination of the Iranian commander-in-chief Soleimani, or when Trump withdrew from the nuclear energy agreement with Iran. Many hoped it would lead to the Iranian regime’s grip on the Middle East beginning to loosen.
Victories that laid the foundation for disaster
But then the situation was different. The war between Israel and Palestine was low-intensity, the focus was on defeating the terrorist organization Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. IS was defeated, Trump promised that US troops would leave Iraq and a peace agreement was also pushed forward with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
It was a time of several short-term victories for Trump. Victories which then formed the basis for the catastrophic situation in which the Middle East and its surroundings find themselves today.
When Trump takes the presidency this period, the situation is completely different. Israel and Palestine are in the spotlight, that is, a conflict that creates far greater division than IS, the Taliban or even the Iranian regime has ever done.
Green light for Israel
We can count on his friendship with Israel to remain and many on the Israeli right will see it as a green light for most things. The question is how far does Trump himself go? All the way to an annexation of the West Bank? Green light for an occupation of Gaza and southern Lebanon? Or rather lifted sanctions against settlers and full support for Israel in the war against Iran?
Since Donald Trump has a clear economic line in his foreign policy, one of the goals will be to achieve a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Then he cannot go too hard against the Palestinians.
So the most likely is a tougher crackdown on Iran, pressuring them to cut off their support for the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and possibly getting a new nuclear deal to suit Trump.
The question is how bloody and dangerous will the road there be?