War aid to Ukraine falls to a new low.
Something that according to Johan Norberg, security policy analyst at FOI, not only can determine Ukraine’s future but also shake the security policy situation in Europe and Sweden going forward.
– This means that if you are an authoritarian country that wants to change something with military means, you have to start. If it doesn’t work at once, you have to hold out longer than the west can handle.
According to new figures from the German research institute Kiel Institute, the total value of new aid commitments collapsed by 87 percent between August and October compared to the same period in 2022.
Ukraine is therefore becoming increasingly dependent on nuclear donors and is now hoping that the US will approve a new support package and that the EU will get through the announced aid package of 50 billion euros.
Johan Norberg, security policy analyst at FOI, believes that it is still important to show both military and political support to Ukraine from a long-term point of view.
– Russia needs rye in the back too and they see that the West is bowing down.
“We bow down”
At a digital meeting before the leaders of the G7 countries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also warns that Russia now expects the West’s unity to “collapse” next year.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has now been going on for a long time and a second winter of war is drawing in. At the same time, eyes are turned elsewhere in the world and the promised support from the rest of the world is also significantly reduced. Something that affects the will to defend in Ukraine and therefore the continued support is important, according to Johan Norberg.
– If we don’t do this then we have to imagine a world where Russia has succeeded in what they want, to resort to military means to get what they want and it is not a pleasant world to live in for those of us who live so close Russia, he says and continues:
– Now maybe nothing will happen tomorrow as this war has taken so much out of Russian ability, but wait five to ten years and maybe it will happen again. Because what we are showing if we do not support Ukraine now is that we are bowing down.
Threats to Sweden and Europe’s security
The security policy analyst emphasizes that it sends out signals to other parts of the world if the West is unable to support Ukraine in the long run.
– If you take Crimea as an example when you looked away because it felt difficult and still continued to trade with Russia. Russia took that as a sign of weakness. An indirect approval that good then we drive a little more.
A Russian victory in the war with Ukraine could therefore pose a threat to Sweden and Europe’s security.
– That would mean a much more unstable Europe and all that that entails. In the end, it’s all about the fact that all countries have to look after their own house. You must have your own ability and your own defense power.
– Now this is in flux and we’ll see what comes out of it.