Yesterday, Britain’s Keir Starmer was in the White House and there was expected to be news about American long-range robots that should be able to reach targets further into Russia.
But no decision was ever made and now the question is how big of an impact the robots could have.
– It is not a magic wand that solves the war, says Johan Norberg, Russia researcher and military analyst at FOI.
It is still uncertain whether Ukraine will get the green light to use donated long-range weapons against targets deep inside Russia. During the UN General Assembly, which will take place next week, the issue is expected to be raised, according to TT.
President Biden has not yet given his approval, but after reports that Russia receives deliveries of robots and drones from Iran and North Korea, the issue is once again relevant. Johan Norberg is a Russia researcher and military analyst at the Total Defense Research Institute FOI.
– Ukraine has expressed a need since the beginning of the war to be able to fight targets inside Russia. All of Russia’s strength in the war in Ukraine comes with resources that come from within Russia. They want to be able to disrupt that from the Ukrainian side, in order to get less pressure at home.
These Russian targets can be attacked by Ukraine
Delivering this type of weapon is a time-consuming process with a lot of technicalities, according to Norberg. However, if the Ukrainians are allowed to use the robots, which can reach further into Russia than is currently possible, this could offer an advantage in the war.
– It would mean that in this area the Russians would have to adapt their behavior if nothing else. You cannot act undisturbed. You may have to spread your resources, you have to drive them around more so that they are mobile. As soon as you gather, there is a risk that you will be turned on. That alone makes it go slower.
Being slow in the war can have serious consequences, says Norberg. Within the area that the long-range weapons could reach, there are quite a few airfields that Ukraine could attack.
– More concretely, I think that Russian air bases will be a hot target. The Russians have an air superiority in the war. Ukraine wants to prevent that and disrupt it as much as possible. It has been quite difficult to do that.
“Not a magic wand”
At the same time, Norberg believes that one should not put too much faith in long-range weapons.
– It is not a magic wand that solves the war, because the war is so big and requires so many different resources at the same time that must do many different things.
He also points out that it is not only about Ukraine getting permission to use long-distance robots, but also how many robots you get access to.
– What is important to have an effect in the war is that there are many rockets as well. It doesn’t matter if you have permission to fire all over Russia, but only two rockets. Several hundred are needed for it to make any kind of difference.
He continues:
– And not just a few hundred now, because they will run out. War consumes a lot of resources. That it comes later is very important.