Mikko Räkköläinen, who wrote a dissertation on the Wagner Group, estimates that the aim is to cut off Prigozhin’s public political activities in Russia.
A central part of the Wagner Group, which has been operating in Ukraine, will be dissolved and merged into the Russian armed forces, believes a doctoral researcher and an expert on private mercenary armies Mikko Räkköläinen ‘s special broadcast on Sunday.
According to Räkköläinen, the information is still fragmented, but most likely the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov eventually got tired of how tedious it was to run the war in Ukraine with semi-autonomous private armies.
Wagner Director Yevgeny Prigozhin boycotted the Ministry of Defense’s request that all volunteer fighters sign military contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense by July 1.
According to Räkköläinen, this practically meant the end of Prigožin’s political aspirations. Controlling the Wagner group had made him useful and valuable, so Prigozhin fought hard against this decision.
According to Räkköläinen, Prigozhin had surprisingly few restraints.
– He had no choice but to go into open rebellion, and apparently to scare Vladimir Putin into firing Shoigu and Gerasimov, so that he could continue to operate independently, Räkköläinen says.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin however, was not ready to yield to Prigozhin’s demands.
Räkköläinen believes that Prigozhin started the rebellion to protest against the wrongdoings of the Ministry of Defense. His quest was to get solid ground under his feet.
– Prigozhin’s political position depended on whether he is useful to the country’s leadership.
– It has been a problem for the Russian military leadership that Wagner and other private armies have checked the contracts first with their own boss, Räkköläinen believes.
Prigozhin’s political activities are “tried to be cut off”
According to Räkköläinen, going to Belarus is not a true exile from Prigozhin, but an emergency solution.
– He is not safe there or, from Putin’s point of view, completely out of the game.
– We don’t know what Prigozh is allowed to think. Wagner may be held to, but in other countries, such as Africa.
In the future, Prigozhin may be tolerated with great care and in great secrecy. Räkköläinen believes that Prigozhin’s public political activity in Russia will certainly be cut off.
– The Wagner group was created specifically for covert operations and partly to run Russian corruption schemes. It has been used in Syria, Libya, Sudan and Mali, Räkköläinen lists.
With Wagner’s help, Russia has benefited from various “business deals” in war zones. The natural resources of different countries have been utilized. For example, according to Räkköläinen, gold worth billions has been smuggled from Sudan to Russia.
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