asked John Helin, an expert following the war in Ukraine, to evaluate what the drawn maps based on satellite data tell about the defense lines prepared by Russia.
Russia has prepared for the Ukrainian counter-attack very carefully, and the Ukrainian counter-attack has proceeded slowly. Russia’s preparation can be seen in satellite images.
– The pictures show the defense that the Russians have been preparing since last autumn in the direction of Zaporizhia, says an expert who follows the war in Ukraine John Helin To .
The map images also show how deep and extensive these Russian preparations are. According to Helin, for example, mines have been used a lot.
In this story, we use maps to present Russia’s preparation for a counterattack against Ukraine.
The areas highlighted in red on the map below are Russian defense positions.
The counter-offensive has been going on for almost two months now, and Ukraine has only advanced a few kilometers during that time.
According to Helin, based on the map images, it can be interpreted that the purpose of Russia’s trenches is to stop Ukraine’s progress.
According to him, the map data has been collected through open source intelligence and satellites. According to Helin, they show the largest Russian defense lines, with so-called dragon’s teeth, tank trenches and Russian trenches.
According to Helin, these are typical for Russians, a broad approach to defense.
– The satellite images do not show perhaps the most prominent Russian defense preparation, i.e. the minefields. They are difficult to observe from the air.
Russian troops are closer to the front line Washington Post including built fortifications on a 50-kilometer highway connecting the occupied cities of Polohy and Tokmak.
In the map below, you can see the defense of the city of Tokmak. Ukraine is trying to push towards the Sea of Azov, where Tokmak and Melitopol would be on the line.
According to Helin, it is also very visible around the city of Melitopol, for example, that the Ukrainian breakthrough along the highway has been feared.
During the summer, we have seen what Russia is up to, says John Helin.
– It is clearly holding on to these conquered territories that it got at the beginning of last year. The frontline has been static ever since.
– Russia has had half a year to prepare the defense in that area, and the defense has been successful. It is unlikely that we will see breakthroughs in Ukraine this summer.
“Ukraine is not a champion of modern war”
John Helin believes that Ukraine is unlikely to have significant offensive breakthroughs in the near future. It can take a long time.
– This attack looks difficult as a whole. After all, Ukraine is not the champion of modern warfare that it looked like after spring 2022.
According to Helin, many seem to genuinely expect Ukraine to run through Russian defense positions. In fact, the situation is challenging.
– This war can last for years without Ukraine getting significant offensive breakthroughs. This is a sad thought, but a discussion that should be held publicly, says Helin.
In the video graphic below, you can see defense positions along the E 58 highway.
In Helin’s opinion, can Russia plan a new major attack?
Although Russia, with the help of its carefully fortified positions, has managed to prevent a breakthrough in Ukraine, there are currently no signs that Russia is about to launch another major offensive in Ukraine.
– Russia is certainly preparing for counterattacks in the region, but Russia currently does not have the capability of a major attack. The forces are tied to defense and there are not a huge number of reserves.
According to Helin, the preparation shows that Russia believes that it is on the defensive at this stage of the war.
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