On Monday, Ukraine struck the bases in Ryazan and Saratov, which are located hundreds of kilometers from the Ukrainian border on the Russian side.
On Tuesday, a similar attack was carried out on a Russian military base in the Kursk region. The strikes are an extraordinary blow to Russia’s assumption that it can protect its deep interior.
At least two Tupolev Tu-95 bombers were damaged in the strikes. Airports are the most important bases for Russian strategic bombers.
of The New York Times by (you switch to another service) Ukraine has confirmed that it carried out the attacks. Ukraine has not previously struck deep into Russia, but focused on waging a defensive war. The strikes raise three key questions, says a military science expert.
1. Can the war expand because of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia?
President of the United States Joe Biden has made it clear right from the start of the Russian invasion that the war must not expand, and NATO does not want to participate in it. The West has limited arms aid and has not provided Ukraine with long-range missiles. Now, however, Ukraine managed to strike within the borders of Russia, almost 600 kilometers away from the border of the countries.
Chief teacher of military science, lieutenant colonel Jarmo Mattila The National Defense University considers the attacks on the bases to be a significant turning point in the war.
– Ukraine has shown that it is capable of striking deep into the Russian side. Ukraine has made it clear that it has the capability to strike Russia’s important strategic targets, Mattila tells by phone.
According to Mattila, it is important that the attacks target military and not civilian targets.
– Since Ukraine cannot prevent Russian attacks with air defense, it must strike at the starting point of the missiles, i.e. the base from which the attacks are carried out. From this point of view, the strikes in Ukraine are justified.
Ukraine has on several occasions asked the West for weapons assistance for long-range strikes, but it has not been provided. The background is the fear of war expansion. President of Russia Vladimir Putin has repeatedly warned the US and its allies that by supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, they would be crossing a dangerous line.
2. How was Ukraine allowed to strike so far inside Russia’s borders?
According to Mattila, there are three explanations for the attacks. The Ukrainians have managed to build a long-range aircraft themselves, they have received or bought it from someone, or Ukraine has a special force that operates drones closer to the Russian border or inside Russia.
– Of course, it will be kept secret if any party has given or sold long-distance airplanes to Ukraine. Ukraine can also have troops inside Russia’s borders, says Mattila.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said (you switch to another service) after the attacks, that the United States has neither encouraged nor allowed Ukraine to carry out attacks inside Russia. Among other things, the Himars rocket launchers delivered to Ukraine were modified so that they cannot be used for long-range strikes, says Wall Street Journal (you are moving to another service).
3. How can Russia react to the attacks?
If Ukraine managed to strike hundreds of kilometers away from Russia, it can do it again. According to Mattila, Russia is now forced to take countermeasures because the attacks also affect its nuclear weapons performance.
– Russia can launch a nuclear weapon from land, sea and air. Now Ukraine has shown that it is capable of influencing one area, that is, destroying aircraft that also operate nuclear weapons.
– This is a big threat to Russia. Now they have to protect the bases that have these aircraft, disperse the equipment and camouflage them.
According to Mattila, Russia’s military performance will not deteriorate due to individual attacks, but this is a new turn in the war.
– If Ukraine succeeds in continuing attacks like this, Russia will have to take countermeasures to keep the planes operational.
Previous attacks on Russia
Ukraine has probably carried out several airstrikes on Russia during the war. Most of them are done with drones.
Ukraine has generally not taken responsibility for the attacks, but experts estimate that Ukraine is behind, among other things, the following attacks.
Of course, the first strike (you switch to another service) It took place on Russian soil on March 29. The target was an ammunition depot in Belgorod, about 40 kilometers from the border.
Just three days later, Ukrainian helicopters attacked the Belgorod oil depot.
In the summer, Ukraine made the first drone strikes on the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally occupied by Russia.
The first strike on the Sevastopol naval base was reportedly carried out on July 31.
More attacks on the naval base were carried out on 18 August, 29 October and 22 November.
In mid-November, Ukraine attacked another Russian naval base in Novorossiysk in the Black Sea. A drone strike ignited an oil depot.