This happened in the Russia-Ukraine border area

Armed groups have attacked areas in Russia’s Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine. According to Russia, these are Ukrainian saboteurs who have been driven back to Ukraine. Ukraine denies involvement and according to information it is about Russians resisting. Here’s what we know right now.

What happened in Belgorod?

Russian volunteer units seeking to topple Russian President Vladimir Putin have claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack in the Belgorod region, which borders northeastern Ukraine. These groups have shared images from there and according to various assessors, including information from Russian military bloggers, the attackers reached almost a mile into the country. They must have had at least two tanks and ten armored vehicles with them.

According to the governor on the Russian side, twelve civilians were injured in the attack and around a hundred residents of several villages near the border were evacuated. Images showed traffic jams circling east. From the Russian side, it is also said that the Russian air defense shot down several drones on the night of Tuesday, some of which damaged buildings. The Russian Defense Ministry claims that the armed groups were pushed back across the border into Ukraine and that Russian forces killed many of them.

Few exact details about the sequence of events have been confirmed by independent sources, but the breach has been partially substantiated through analyzes of existing image material.

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Which groups are involved?

Two groups have claimed responsibility for the incursion across the Russian border. One group, the Freedom Legion of Russia (LSR), claims to have been formed by and for Russian volunteers who want to fight for Ukraine in the ongoing war. The other group, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), was formed by Russian outspoken neo-Nazis who also claim to be on the side of Ukraine. It is unclear how many volunteers are included in the two groups.

The groups present themselves with a white and blue flag that is presented as an alternative flag for a free Russia.

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What does Kyiv say?

Ukraine has distanced itself from the Russian groups and says they operate on their own initiative in Russia. It is unclear how the groups are organized and equipped and how they respond to the Ukrainian chain of command. Andriy Yusov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian intelligence service, says that “in Ukraine, these units are part of the defense and security forces. In Russia they act as independent entities”.

Assessors, including several that TT has spoken to, assume that the groups obey the Ukrainian army and act on Ukrainian directives.

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How have the events been received in Russia?

Russia’s tightly controlled state media has reported the events at the border with restraint and with a focus on the actions of the authorities. The American think tank Institute for the studies of war (ISW) writes in a report that Russian military bloggers and experts reacted with some panic and that the attack “surprised the Russian commentators”.

In official statements, the attackers are designated as Ukrainian saboteurs and there is no mention at all that they are Russians. The Kremlin warned on Wednesday that further intrusions would be met with an “extremely” harsh response.

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What does this mean for the war?

The attacks will not necessarily directly affect the war in Ukraine, which is mainly taking place in the Donbass region in the east of the country. But several analysts see it as conceivable that these smaller advances are a deliberate strategy to divert Russia’s attention and ensure that Russian forces are moved ahead of Ukraine’s expected counter-offensive.

Moscow has painted the image of Russia as a “victim” and that the invasion of Ukraine is about self-defense to keep Russia safe. Putin will likely use these attacks to bolster that image.

But the breach could also arouse anger and discontent within Russia and appear embarrassing for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In past events that have been embarrassing for Russia, such as the drone incident in the Kremlin and the attack on the bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea, Moscow has responded with massive artillery strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Sources: AFP, AP, CNN, and more.