A technological tsunami is rising towards us and almost no one is paying attention. A few weeks ago, the president of Nvidia, the American Jensen Huang, announced the short-term arrival of humanoid robots at a price of between $10,000 and $20,000 per unit. Elon Musk says nothing else and plans to market it, via Tesla, at comparable prices.
We know Musk for his excesses but ultimately, he is a rather successful entrepreneur. Those who have denied in the past its ability to create from scratch an automobile manufacturer or a company like SpaceX – manufacturer of rockets, organizer of space launches and telecom operator – are at their expense. As for Huang, his reasoning is based on the extraordinary technological advances made by Nvidia. Remember that this company manufactures so-called GPU – graphics processing unit – chips, initially designed for video game graphics applications, but widely used since then for digital simulation needs, particularly in the fields of aeronautics, health or to carry out ultra-complex scientific calculations, for example in fundamental physics.
The performance of these chips is improving at an exponential rate. They are 10,000 times more effective today than ten years ago. This means that they are more powerful and, all things being equal, consume less energy. Humanoid robots are robots powered by batteries, augmented with these chips, and equipped with sensors that allow them to see – often better than humans -, hear and, increasingly, feel, which can be crucial for handling fragile objects.
Huang therefore explains that the cost of these robots, produced in series, could be around that of a new mid-range car. The comparison is not trivial since the car is a durable good, often financed with a simple depreciable loan, whose equipment rate is high: there are around 700 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants in France, 860 per 1,000 in the States -United.
These humanoid robots are initially intended for the BtoB market: we are starting to see them in warehouses – Amazon produces them for its own needs -, factories will probably equip themselves, as will service activities in a shortage situation. of labor: hospitals, retirement homes, etc. Once fixed costs have been amortized, prices will be low enough to penetrate the individual market. These robots will then be able to clear the table, hang out the laundry, assemble a piece of furniture and, if urban regulations permit, go to the grocery store. Like the automobile during the Belle Epoque, they will first be considered luxury products, before becoming democratized.
A shock for the world of work
Economic analysis and political foresight must now grasp the consequences of this wave of Schumpeterian destruction-creation. These humanoid robots will profoundly affect the world of work and the distribution of income. Indeed, certain professions will enter into direct competition with these robots. This will be the case for forklift drivers or movers. It is, in a sense, desirable that these professions disappear because they are physically tiring. In these professions, salaries will fall.
Conversely, in sectors where robots will not be competitors but tools, wages are likely to increase. Those who design them – and their shareholders – will see their remuneration explode, which has already started. Many professions will be in a gray area. Will they be efficient and empathetic enough to use these robots wisely, or will they inevitably be replaced by them? The prospect is distressing. And the risk that part of the social body will turn yellow cannot be ruled out. Economic implications – on the labor market -, salary – on income inequalities -, political – on the rise of populism – and geopolitical – which countries will master these technologies? : here are four subjects which should already mobilize us.
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