President of France Emmanuel Macron and the Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz are often one smile in front of the media. This was also the case during Macron’s latest visit to Germany.
However, recent descriptions of the relationship between the heads of state are a very different kind of reading. Macron and Scholz’s personal chemistry is described as bad.
In the German media, the state of the relationship between Scholz and Macron has even been characterized as a “dangerous ice age”.
In the headlines of the French media, the two have not managed to tame each other. Macron traveled to Berlin in March. The purpose of the trip was to ease tensions, says the title.
The economic publication Bloomberg warns that the inaction between Macron and Scholz threatens to paralyze Europe.
One word is enough to describe the relationship between the two countries at the moment, says the doctoral researcher Antti Ronkainen from the University of Helsinki.
– It’s so busy that you don’t really want to invest in the relationship, Ronkainen, who is familiar with EU affairs, laughs.
The current European Union has been seen as an economic project as well as a peace project, with the idea of tying France and Germany together as a background.
France and Germany have been considered the engine of the EU, which defines the direction of the entire Union.
That is why the efforts and mutual relations of powerful countries have an impact on the entire EU region, i.e. also on Finland.
For this article, we collected important things that are good to understand about the relationship between France and Germany.
Bad intervals cause decision-making to stall
The relationship between France and Germany is strained by issues related to supporting Ukraine as well as broader security policy issues, such as the relationship with the United States, energy issues and the approach to financing crises with debt money.
At the same time, the EU has several crises and critical issues to resolve. They include, among others, the development of European defense, intensifying great power competition and climate change.
– If France and Germany are not in agreement, it will be very difficult to push things forward in Brussels, says a German researcher to Jacob Ross From the German Institute for Foreign Policy (DGAP).
For example, Germany and France played a key role in the euro crisis of the 2010s, when five eurozone member countries, namely Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, ran into serious economic difficulties.
These countries had to apply for support from the EU and other euro countries, such as Finland.
France and Germany introduced the idea of taking over the joint debt. The reception to the joint debt would have been different if the proposal had come from the European Commission instead of the duo, says Ronkainen, a doctoral researcher familiar with EU affairs.
– The fact that these countries take political ownership of something has a lot of weight in what other countries do.
Cracks in the relationship have become more pronounced in recent years
Recently, the issue of supporting Ukraine has cooled the relationship between the two countries.
France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz both want to appear as leading figures in the field of European defense, says German researcher Ross.
There is a common understanding between the countries that Ukraine must win the war of aggression started by Russia. The means only cause discord.
Germany supports a more cautious strategic line, even though it is the second largest supporter of Ukraine measured by armed means right after the United States. Recently, the discussion has revolved especially around the Taurus missiles, which Germany has not agreed to send to Ukraine.
In France, the line is different. At the beginning of the year, Macron raised eyebrows with his comment about the possible sending of troops to Ukraine. Just over a month ago, he demanded the construction of an independent and credible European defense.
The countries’ differences also come to the fore in relation to the United States. For Scholz’s Germany, the United States is a close and important partner whose support and example is trusted. Macron’s reliance on US leadership in France does not fit in with the idea of strategic autonomy.
The two are looking for new partners
In a tense situation, the two look for new partners.
France has been more active than Germany in the search for new partners. Among other things, it has warmed its relationship with Britain, which left the Union in 2020.
– It is a little easier for Germany and France if a third party is involved, researcher Minna Ålander He says about the Foreign Policy Institute.
In particular, Poland has been offered as a “third wheel” after the change of power in the country at the end of last year.
German researcher Ross reminds us that when the Baltic countries warned of the Russian threat, France and Germany paid little attention to the matter.
The situation can now also offer smaller countries new opportunities and a say – including Finland. Researcher Ålander says that many countries are now looking north.
– Finland and Sweden are now new NATO members and already EU members. The Nordic group is seen positively and as a strong, good group, says Ålander.
French President Macron’s security policy line seems to be partially converging with Finland’s aspirations, estimates a senior researcher Iro Sarkkä From the Foreign Policy Institute.
– Macron’s will is that we have a strong Europe and that the European states take care of themselves and put their cards together for the common good, says Särkkä.
The leadership of Germany and France is changing
The far-right has been predicted to tear up the political field in the European elections in both France and Germany. Domestic policy issues have indeed kept the heads of both countries busy.
French President Macron has strongly promoted the idea of European autonomy in his home country as well. However, according to the opinion polls of the European elections, about a third of the people in France do not stand behind Macron’s policy.
Instead lead the polls far-right party National Front (RN).
A victory in the European elections can bring it to the long-term leader For Marine Le Pen boost to the next presidential election. It would be a bitter defeat for Macron, who cannot run in the next election in 2027.
In Germany, too, Chancellor Scholz’s SPD threatens to be sidelined in the European elections. In addition, the next Bundestag or parliamentary elections will be held in Germany already next year, the results of which can be predicted based on the European elections.
A-studio asks who decides the EU’s major policies. Academy researcher Timo Miettinen from the University of Helsinki and VTT’s director of international affairs Janica Ylikarjula in the studio. A-studio on TV1 or Areena at 21:05.
What thoughts does the state of the relationship between France and Germany evoke? You can discuss the topic on 29.5. until 11 p.m.