Some bad dreams repeat themselves tirelessly throughout a lifetime, always with the same details, and, above all, the same conclusion. The government’s recurring nightmare? Public finances. After a meeting on Thursday, August 29, with the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, Thomas Cazenave, the Chairman of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, Eric Coquerel, reported that Bercy expected lower tax revenues than expected in 2024. “There is less revenue than hoped for, whether it is corporate tax or income tax. VAT is still going, but July was not very good,” declared the LFI MP after this meeting, according to comments reported by AFP.
Another setback. Last year already, the public deficit widened to 5.5% of GDP, far from the 4.9% expected by the executive in the 2023-2024 finance bill. The fault lies in… lower-than-expected revenues in the state coffers. If the scenario repeats itself, the consequences could be considerable. As in April, when Bruno Le Maire signed a decree canceling 10 billion euros in credits, including 2 billion devoted to ecology, the future government could be forced to significantly cut the budgets of certain ministries. Especially since some of them, such as Labor, have already been instructed to tighten their belts after the sending of the ceiling letters – which set a maximum amount of credits granted. Given the current difficulty in finding the slightest savings, a new correction seems unthinkable.
A predictable situation?
Past mistakes do not seem to have served as a lesson. The situation was predictable, according to LR senator Jean-François Husson. “The slippage observed in 2023 will inevitably have repercussions in 2024. If the taxable base produces less revenue and this continues, we are then in a form of bottleneck,” deplores the general rapporteur of the Senate Finance Committee. With an excessive deficit procedure from the European Commission now hanging over its head, France cannot afford a new gap. So how can we explain this new risk of slippage? “There are faster changes in behavior in the consumption of the general public and perhaps there are also unforeseen expenses or unanticipated absences of revenue that Bercy’s models have difficulty integrating,” the senator puts forward as the first justification. But in the meantime, the ministry’s teams should have corrected the situation.
By being wrong again about its forecasts, Bercy would further undermine citizens’ trust in their governments, which is already fragile. “It is an anxiety-provoking message. Bercy is perceived by the French as an impenetrable citadel, whose agents always end up winning and asserting their point of view, even when politicians try to change things,” judges Jean-François Husson.
The elected official calls for more transparency: “Even if the news is unpleasant, it is better to say it and provide all the information”. Invited to the meeting on Thursday with Eric Coquerel, alongside the new general rapporteur of the National Assembly’s budget, Charles de Courson, he has not yet responded to the minister’s request. The senator regrets that Bercy has not yet provided all the documents necessary to understand and analyse the deleterious situation of public finances. “We must respect Parliament, it is unacceptable”, he fumes. Last March, Jean-François Husson led a monitoring mission at the Ministry of the Economy, following the announcement of the deterioration of the deficit. Faced with the lack of clarity, he warns: “If I don’t have the elements, I will raid again”. Bercy has been warned.
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