Degradation on Friday, censorship in two weeks? For Gabriel Attal and his government, this is enough to cause insomnia. Friday May 31, Standard and Poor’s, considered the most influential rating agency of all, delivers its verdict. The risk is maximum since the agency attached a negative outlook to its AA in its latest revision. “The highest probability is that we will be degraded,” confides a minister. Ten days before the European elections, this would not be the best effect. This pessimism explains the discretion of the executive when the French rating was not downgraded by Fitch and Moody’s in April.
The first blade lifts the hair, the second cuts it. We remember this advertisement from the 1970s. After the economic sanction and the possible electoral sanction of June 9, the political sanction? Not because of the motions of censure that the RN and Nupes should table in a few days. This is another date that the government has checked on its agenda. From June 11, the National Assembly will examine a technical bill, in reality unimportant, but which could explode the current fragile political balance. The title of the text hides its game well: “Draft law relating to the results of management and approving the accounts for the year 2023”.
The council of ministers examined it on April 20. Main points according to the government: an effort to control spending has made it possible to mitigate the effects of the economic slowdown on tax revenue; the public deficit stands at 5.5% in 2023 but the public debt ratio is decreasing; a deterioration of the deficit compared to the forecasts of the end of management law is explained by the economic slowdown; a level of revenue lower than forecasts due to the economic slowdown was noted (Bercy also requested an internal investigation to understand the spectacular gap between forecasts and reality). That is to say 9 articles to allow Parliament to validate the budget of the previous year. The worst part is that a rejection has no consequences; Moreover, it would not be at all new since this fairly new mechanism was developed.
A shooting window
But the government’s insincerity can provide the opposition, and in particular the right, with the opportunity to table a motion of censure to sanction a deficit of 5.5%. For several weeks, the Macronists have said they fear a window of opportunity: between the European elections, which do not promise to be triumphant, and the start of the Olympic Games, the president could hardly provoke a dissolution of the National Assembly in the event of government censorship and would therefore find himself stuck as well as embarrassed.
“When it comes to censoring the 2025 finance bill, the right will be less comfortable because the text will be criticized more for its severity than for its laxity,” notes a member of the executive. On insincerity accounts, on the other hand, the attack is easier.” It could also be more consensual. The LR group cannot table a motion of censure alone: it has 61 members, not all of whom wish to overthrow the government, and 58 signatories are needed. What will the atmosphere be like the day after the European elections? All hypotheses are possible: if LR is very weak, he can be caught in a quasi-suicidal spiral; if LR raises his head, he may think he is powerful. In this atmosphere, the revelation, by La Tribune Sundayof a dinner between Gabriel Attal and Laurent Wauquiez fuels speculation.
Whatever happens, it will only be the beginning of a journey of the cross. The 2025 budget will be that of all economic difficulties and all political risks. For the moment, the Minister of Public Accounts Thomas Cazenave is surveying the opposition groups to find out under what conditions they could, not vote for – no one dreams – but abstain. At the same time, traditional interviews begin between the minister responsible for preparing the budget and each member of the government. The first to be received at Bercy is the Minister of Sports, Amélie Oudéa-Castéra, on June 3.
.