Emmanuel Macron is ready for a high-risk political sequence: resignation of Gabriel Attal, maintenance of the government and ready-made responses to the criticisms that are emerging on the risks of authoritarian drifts. The president will have to deal with the shocks.
The essential
- Emmanuel Macron finally has his roadmap for the coming weeks: it begins with resignation, which he will finally accept, most likely this Tuesday, July 16 around noon.
- The head of state is still the one who decides on the major maneuvers, the schedule and the future of the executive. That of Gabriel Attal at Matignon is also decided: the youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic will be replaced by a person who will have to form a new government. According to Emmanuel Macron’s wishes, the person who succeeds Gabriel Attal will have to have the support of at least 289 deputies from the “republican political forces”, who will agree to “build a broad gathering” that would exclude LFI and the RN. That’s the first outline of the plan. Needless to say, it will take time, a lot of time.
- Before that, Emmanuel Macron will keep Gabriel Attal and his government in place from Tuesday July 16, even if the Prime Minister and his ministers will resign, with very few prerogatives.
- This is a real political earthquake: this change in nature at Matignon is bringing the country into a phase of “resigning government”, which cannot be overthrown by the National Assembly, and is no longer responsible to the deputies. If the letter of the law is not flouted, it is the spirit of the Constitution that appears to be affected: the expression of popular sovereignty, the National Assembly, is deprived of its means of censorship over the executive. If this configuration can be understood in a transition phase, it clearly poses a democratic problem if it lasts for a long time, weeks or months.
- Gabriel Attal and 17 ministers will also be deputies, which contravenes the Separation of Powers: the ministers – who embody the executive power – will be elected officials whose mission is to vote on laws – the essence of the legislative power.
- The reactions of the opposition should very quickly bring this problem to light, especially since the left is demanding that the president appoint a Prime Minister from their ranks as quickly as possible.
Latest news
12:08 – Already reactions on the left to Gabriel Attal’s dual position
A Prime Minister who is also a full member of parliament in the National Assembly is unusual. And the first reactions from the opposition are coming in. Speaking to Libération, PS MP Philippe Brun is annoyed: “This is the ultimate stage of at the same time”. Damien Maudet, an elected LFI member, points out the distortion implied by this dual role: “They continue to damage the Republic and the separation of powers”.
11:30 – The Council of Ministers begins
The head of state has called a final council of ministers with the current team, at the Elysée. Once Gabriel Attal has resigned, during or after this meeting, the president will no longer be able to bring together ministers in this form. In a short time now, we will know if the government has indeed resigned.
10:56 – Gabriel Attal, Prime Minister resigns, but is freed
The Prime Minister has clearly distanced himself from Emmanuel Macron, who would have clearly appreciated more loyalty, as ministers have soberly made known to Le Monde and Politico in recent days. But it is now an assumed and public line: Gabriel Attal does not agree with the recent choices of the head of state. “I did not choose this dissolution, but I chose not to undergo it,” Gabriel Attal had affirmed, from the steps of Matignon, on July 7. At the head of a temporary government, he should begin to make more personal positions heard, particularly in the Assembly, where he will also be president of the Renaissance group, from Thursday in the first parliamentary session.
10:23 – The Attal government unshakeable? The Constitution flouted?
The establishment of a resigning government is fundamentally problematic. It must be understood that the President of the Republic has set his conditions: he will appoint a Prime Minister once a proposal for Matignon emerges that has the support of a majority in the Assembly. Which is very far from being the case for the moment. The Head of State is therefore waiting. And in this moment of waiting, he is maintaining a government, with the same ministers, even if they have resigned.
The fact remains that this solution poses a serious constitutional problem: a resigning government cannot be overthrown by the National Assembly, it is no longer responsible to the deputies. If the letter of the law is not flouted, since the government no longer has full prerogatives, it is the spirit of the Constitution that appears to be affected: the expression of popular sovereignty, the National Assembly, is deprived of its means of censure over the executive. If this configuration can be understood in a transition phase, it clearly poses a democratic problem if it lasts for a long time, weeks or months.
09:07 – A transitional government for “the continuity of the State”
What exactly will the government that has resigned be able to do? This configuration of governance without the power to initiate any law would above all make it possible to ensure “in the name of continuity, the minimal functioning of the State”, as explained in a note from the General Secretariat of the Government (SGG) dated 2 July. One exception should be noted, however: in an emergency situation, such as in the event of an attack or natural disaster, the government will still be able to take decisions that fall within the scope of full-fledged functioning.
08:59 – Attal’s resignation accepted and made public around noon?
This Tuesday, July 16, the President of the Republic is calling a Council of Ministers at 11:30 a.m. at the Elysée Palace. This will likely be the opportunity for Gabriel Attal to submit his resignation and that of his government. Emmanuel Macron has already agreed to accept it, with the fixed idea of keeping the current team in place for a certain time, particularly during the very sensitive period of the Olympic Games. The Head of State will still have to find the words to explain to the French why he is keeping a government despite the new composition of the National Assembly, which is forcing the President to propose a new governance solution based on national sovereignty.
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Why resign before July 18?
The Prime Minister wants to resign before July 18. Why? Because Gabriel Attal, elected in his constituency, wants to sit as a deputy; he was also elected president of the Renaissance group in the Assembly. In addition, the other elected ministers also intend to benefit from their parliamentary mandate. And everything will have to be clear on July 18, the first day of the legislature, and the deputies will have to be duly registered in the Assembly before that date. On that day, the elected representatives must also vote for the presidency of the National Assembly and every vote will count. There are also many centrist deputies vying for high-stakes positions within the Palais Bourbon: vice-presidencies, quaestor positions and committee chair positions.
In order for the elected or re-elected ministers to be able to engage in these decisive votes and distributions, the government must resign before July 18. And this will be done, according to information from Politicowhich is based on the confidences of Emmanuel Moulin, the Prime Minister’s chief of staff, made to the chief of staff other ministries. The media outlet thus advances: “Emmanuel Macron should logically accept the resignation of Gabriel Attal no later than July 17, that is, Wednesday.”
According to information from France Info, this resignation of Gabriel Attal should take place on Tuesday, July 16, just after the council of ministers held on that date. Le Monde writes for its part that the resignation of the Prime Minister will be accepted by the head of state on Wednesday, July 17.
Who will be Prime Minister after the resignation of Gabriel Attal?
But be careful, this resignation will not mean that the tenant of Matignon and all the ministers will leave their office. No. The scenario put forward by the president himself, in his letter, in the course of a sentence, is indeed that of a “resigning” government. And Emmanuel Macron has already decided who will be at Matignon after Gabriel Attal’s resignation: it will be Gabriel Attal himself, even if he will no longer be full Prime Minister.
The government and its Prime Minister will therefore still be in office, but without their prerogatives and ability to initiate any reforms. This government would manage “current affairs” without taking measures with a budgetary impact and without being able to introduce bills.
And Emmanuel Macron would like to be satisfied with this government until “the gathering of political forces that recognize themselves in republican principles” takes place. And for this one, there is no deadline. According to information from Le Monde, the President of the Republic intends to keep the current government “at least during the Olympic Games, and why not until the opening of the next ordinary session, on October 1st.”