The future of Ukraine these days hangs partly on the situation on the Mexican border. Absurd ? Not for conservatives. Republican elected officials in the Senate have just blocked an emergency budget measure which was to allocate $61 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine. Their position is clear: they will not give a penny to kyiv if the Democrats do not agree to put in place a plan to drastically reduce illegal immigration. This bargaining which has lasted for weeks is not to the Democrats’ taste. “I will demand that we approve a ban on assault rifles, otherwise I will not vote for aid to Ukraine,” declared Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator, ironically. “That’s how it works here.”
America is at a turning point. After having strongly supported the war effort at the start, public opinion is increasingly skeptical about this endless conflict which it sees as a financial pit. The United States has allocated more than 75 billion to Ukraine, two-thirds of which in military assistance. According to a Gallup poll published at the beginning of November, 41% of Americans – including 62% of Republicans – think that the government is spending too much money on kyiv, a figure up 12 points compared to June 2023.
Aware of the hostility of their base, a growing number of Republican elected officials are beginning to defend “America first”, Donald Trump’s slogan which dates back to the isolationist movement of the 1930s. Even Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, a fierce defender of Ukraine, demanded that aid be conditional on immigration reform. Yet it was he who, last month, said: “I think Ronald Reagan would turn in his grave if he saw that we weren’t helping Ukraine.”
According to their specious argument, these Republican elected officials cannot morally release billions to defend Ukrainian territory while their own borders are threatened by a surge of migrants. “The rise in illegal immigration is a serious problem that needs to be addressed, but it cannot be said to threaten the survival of the United States in the same way that Russia’s invasion threatens Ukraine “, protests Max Boot, the editorialist of Washington Post. By linking the two issues, he adds, Republicans have “an excuse to abandon Ukraine, which is what their base wants,” and can at the same time accuse Democrats of endangering world security.
Will the two parties be able to find a compromise? Nobody knows anything about it. Immigration is undoubtedly the most divisive subject across the Atlantic in decades. The last time Congress managed to agree on significant reform was in… 1986, under Ronald Reagan.
In any case, it is a winning political move for the Republicans. They satisfy their voters, opposed to distant conflicts and very concerned about the situation at the border, while poisoning the Democrats. The White House absolutely wants to obtain this military aid, but also realizes that the migrant crisis is hurting it electorally. In September alone, Border Patrol apprehended nearly 270,000.
Joe Biden denounced the attitude of Republicans ready to “bring Ukraine to its knees”. He also assured that he was ready to make “significant compromises” on immigration. The question is how far can he go without alienating his left wing? The situation is urgent. The parliamentary session ends in the coming days and the budget impasse threatens to extend into 2024. The only certainty for the White House is that the battle will be even tougher next year to unlock new aid.