From one white smoke to another. While Emmanuel Macron has finally decided to appoint a head of government, all eyes are now turning to Brussels. On Wednesday, September 11, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, is expected to unveil the cast of the future college of 27 commissioners who reign over the Berlaymont citadel. Who, in what position and with what title? A high-wire act where geography, the hand of political parties, the critical mass of countries, gender and – sometimes – the skills of the candidates proposed by the Member States are intertwined in a hellish balance to be found.
According to our information, Thierry Breton, outgoing Commissioner for the Internal Market, should inherit a high-sounding title: Executive Vice-President for Industry and Strategic Autonomy. In this European diplomacy, every word is weighed with a trebuchet. “Vice-President”, a stripe therefore, for the one who was only Commissioner during the previous term. “Executive”, then, an additional medal for Breton who likes nothing more than to free himself from the hierarchy. Finally, the scope, vast, at the heart of the agenda of the future Commission. A field plowed by the French President for months. “It is the variation of what Emmanuel Macron presented to his European partners at the Versailles summit in March 2022”, observes Valérie Hayer, the president of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Strengthening our defense capabilities, strategic sovereignty in food, medicines, energy, critical metals or semiconductors, reorientation of trade policy, regulation of large digital platforms…
Keeping up appearances
For the Elysée, winning this portfolio would be a way to limit France’s loss of influence in European institutions. The slap in the face of the presidential camp in the June legislative elections, the political soap opera of the summer and the worrying drift in public finances have clearly weakened the French position. “In addition to these cyclical factors, there are more structural reasons, such as France’s inability to build coalitions with the countries of the East and South of the Union, observes Jérémie Gallon, lawyer and specialist in European issues. In 2017, Macron embodied the idea box for the future of the Union; today he is isolated.” In this context, an executive vice-presidency with a field of intervention as broad as strategic autonomy would allow the French head of state to save face.
There remains the personality of Thierry Breton. His reappointment in Brussels has not been a long, quiet river. Of course, the outgoing Commissioner’s record is rather positive. His role at the time of Covid in the industrial organization and the ramp-up of vaccine production on European soil was essential. He built the foundations of a common European defense industry, by coordinating the production and delivery of munitions to Ukraine. He also tackled the cowboy methods of the web giants by finalizing two European regulations – the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act – which partly limit their abuses. And he is the father of the first European regulation on artificial intelligence, admittedly very contested by the nuggets of AI.
Yes, but behind the battles won, the man and his ego, his bulldozer strategy and his maverick side have seriously irritated. “Whether in the European Parliament, the Commission or in the directorates-general, there is a Breton fatigue”, whispers a senior official. Symbol of this exasperation, the relationship between Ursula von der Leyen and the Frenchman has, over the years, turned into trench warfare. To the point that the President of the Commission is said to have threatened to veto a possible return of Breton.
“Breton slipped into a mouse hole”
The blame is shared. Von der Leyen’s non-collegiality irritated Breton, who in return, particularly during the European campaign, has continued to blacken the German’s record. “At the end of last spring, Macron had almost resolved not to re-propose the former head of Atos as the future French commissioner,” explains a connoisseur of European issues. The names of Elisabeth Borne or Laurence Boone, the former Minister Delegate for Europe, are then circulating. Those of Clément Beaune, the former Minister of Transport, and Bruno Le Maire, the head of Bercy – the latter is said to have refused the post – are also put forward.
But the dissolution of June 9 and the political impasse following the second round of the legislative elections completely reshuffled the cards. It was too complicated for Macron to find both a Prime Minister and a European Commissioner. Especially since at the beginning of the summer, the left and the RN began to put in their two cents. On July 10, while passing through Brussels, Jean-Luc Mélenchon demanded that the name of the French representative on the Commission be decided by the New Popular Front alliance. “It is the prerogative of the Prime Minister to appoint the European Commissioner,” Marine Le Pen immediately added, without any legal text confirming these claims. To end the emerging controversy and regain control, Emmanuel Macron officially proposed, in a letter addressed to Ursula von der Leyen on July 25, the reappointment of Thierry Breton to the post of Commissioner. Only one name, therefore, while the President of the Commission had asked each Member State to submit two candidates to her, one woman and one man. “Breton slipped into a mouse hole to keep his job,” observes one MEP.
The exact extent of her power remains to be seen. There is the title on one side and her real scope of action on the other. During the previous term, Margrethe Vestager, crowned by her fight against the Gafa, had certainly been propelled to vice-president of the Commission, but she had been quickly eclipsed, notably by Breton. Today, the notion of “strategic autonomy” is sufficiently broad and vague for some commissioners to step on each other’s toes. In a speech in Prague on 30 August, Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the creation of a Commissioner for Defence… a position that Breton had self-assigned last spring. In the new organisation of the Commission, Vice-President Breton could find himself flanked by one or two commissioners – for Defence or Digital. A form of surveillance by the boss. “We must be wary of the optical illusion of high-sounding titles. It is not necessarily a sign of influence,” concludes a senior European official.
A diffuse influence
French influence will also have to be sought among the directors-general and even the heads of units within the Commission: “They are the ones who actually write the European regulations and their role is extremely important,” continues Jérémie Gallon. Will Olivier Guersent, head of the Competition Directorate, or Stéphanie Rizo, head of the Budget Directorate, remain in their posts? Just like Charles Fries, the Deputy Secretary-General of the EEAS – the European External Action Service -, the linchpin of military and financial aid to Ukraine since the start of the war? Alexandre Adam, Emmanuel Macron’s Europe advisor, should be appointed deputy director of Ursula von der Leyen’s office. An office that has remained vacant for almost three years…
For Thierry Breton, the next step will be the hearing and vote in the European Parliament during the month of October. “If new revelations were to come out about the debacle of the French giant Atos that he headed before being appointed to Brussels, some MEPs could cut their teeth on him,” fears a French parliamentarian. A rejection by the European Parliament and it would be back to square one, in France. Too late, the post of Prime Minister is already taken…
.