What is the number one risk, all categories combined, that humanity will have to face? Not surprisingly, the answer is unanimous: climate change. This is one of the lessons from Axa’s 2023 study on “future risks”, those expected to emerge over a five to ten year horizon. An exercise carried out every year for a decade. This report, originally internal, responded to regulatory requirements. It has been public since 2018. The number 2 European insurance company interviews a myriad of experts on this occasion – more than 3,200, in 50 countries -, mainly risk specialists and actuaries from its troops, but also brokers, clients, and researchers. At the same time, a survey was carried out by Ipsos among around 20,000 people in 15 countries. Beyond the climate emergency, for the first time in the lead in all geographic areas, geopolitical instability or cybersecurity, other concerns are growing quietly.
Distrust of technology
The theme of “the future of work” thus makes a breakthrough in 2023 in the experts’ responses. If it does not yet appear in the top 10, it is seriously approaching it: in 17th position a year ago, it is now in 12th place in the ranking, a significant jump in the eyes of Paul-Louis Moracchini, responsible of emerging risks of the Axa group and co-author of the report. Two major factors intensify this fear. Firstly, technological advances, which give the impression that they “create more problems than they solve”. Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) question the place of humans in business. To the point that 70% of respondents and almost two thirds of experts consider that in terms of research on AI, a pause would be welcome.
Another explanation for this growing anxiety around work: the lack of skills. It’s not just the manufacturing industry that’s struggling to find workers. The insurance sector is also affected. Axa XL, the subsidiary dedicated to large risks, took eight months to find a cybersecurity insurer. “In the medium term, the challenge we will have to face is the numerous retirements of employees who have acquired expertise in specific areas, and the transmission of their knowledge,” recognizes Paul-Louis Moracchini.
These upheavals in the world of work also accentuate social tensions. A risk perceived as increasingly acute, especially in the eyes of the general population who places it 4th among their concerns in 2023, three notches higher than the previous year. “There are alarming signals in the United States, but also in Europe, particularly in France and Germany, regarding the fragmentation of our societies,” notes the head of Axa. More than 80% of respondents, experts and non-specialists alike, believe that these tensions could threaten the functioning of democratic institutions and disrupt commercial and economic activities. The memory of the “yellow vests” remains vivid.